Rainfall Series Fractality in the Baja California State

López-Lambraño, Álvaro Alberto; Fuentes, Carlos; Pliego-Díaz, Máximo; López-L, M.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-27965-7_11

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(42 reference statements)

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“…As previously mentioned, the study area corresponds to the Guadalupe river basin located in the northern state of Baja California, between latitudes 31°50′ N, 32°16′ N and longitudes 116°54′ W, 115°52′ W. It is a semi-arid zone with a Mediterranean climate, with an average annual temperature of approximately 16 °C [46] and average annual precipitation of approximately 254.6 mm [5]. It has an area of 2390 km 2 and is divided into three sub-basins, Ojos Negros located upstream, Guadalupe Valley in the central part, and La Misión sub-basin downstream that empties into the Pacific Ocean (Figure 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These water scarcity issues are more evident in areas with arid and semi-arid climates such as those covering 49% of the Mexican territory since the distinctive limited rainfall in these regions aggravates the situation [4]. This occurs in the hydrographic basin of the Guadalupe River in Baja California, which has a precipitation regime with a dry season and another one of rains during the winter, recording an average of 254.6 mm per year [5]. Likewise, this said regime is affected by variability and climate change, contributing to the water resources restriction in the basin [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Supply and Demand Analysis of Water Resources. Case Study: Irrigation Water Demand in a Semi-Arid Zone in Mexico

et al. 2020

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To sustainably use water resources, it is important to quantify water availability in a certain region. Due to climate change, population increase, and economic development, water demand increases continuously. Consequently, the difference between supply and demand of water becomes a significant issue, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this research, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied to the Guadalupe river basin, to assess supply and demand analysis of water resources in this area, specifically for the irrigation of agricultural crops and municipal uses. From the land use, soil type, and terrain slope maps, 763 Hydrostatic Release Units (HRU) were estimated, distributed in the diverse relief types making up the basin, featured by mountains, hills, plateaus, plains, and valleys. For the crop area, 159 HRU were found with the three slope classification types, where 57 HRU represent 91% of the cultivated area on slopes, from 0 to 15%, located in the Ojos Negros and Guadalupe Valleys. The Soil Conservation Service method (SCS) was used to estimate the average monthly runoff and soil moisture content. As a result, water resource parameters related to the supply were determined with this, e.g., runoff, aquifer recharge, flow, infiltration, and others. Crop coefficient values (Kc) were used to determine crop evapotranspiration (ETc), to estimate the water demand of these for each month, using the multi-year monthly average reference evapotranspiration (ETo) calculated with the SWAT model. Overall good performance was obtained considering average monthly discharges data from the Agua Caliente gauging station. The model was calibrated, modifying the parameters chosen according to sensitivity analysis: SCS curve number, base-flow factor, ground-flow delay, and the threshold for return-flow occurrence. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool–Calibration and Uncertainty Programs SWAT-CUP has different goodness-of-fit indicators for the model e.g., determination coefficient (R2), standard deviation of the measured data (RSR), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), and others. Multiple iterations were performed, resulting in a ratio between the root mean square error and the standard deviation of the measured data (RSR) of 0.61, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.70, and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.63. A supply–demand analysis of the volume generated by the runoff from the basin was performed using the method of estimating useful volume for a reservoir. It is observed in these results that only positive deviations were obtained, implying that runoff in this basin is not enough to meet monthly demand. Finally, the need to establish actions to ensure water management efficiency is highlighted, both for irrigation of agricultural crops and for supply to the region population.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Supply and Demand Analysis of Water Resources. Case Study: Irrigation Water Demand in a Semi-Arid Zone in Mexico

et al. 2020

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“…Essentially, the smaller the magnitude of fractal dimension, the more monotonous the variation pattern. Fractal dimension analysis has been frequently carried out in the investigation of meteorological time series, such as wind speed (Chang et al ., 2012; Harrouni, 2016; Cadenas et al ., 2019; Koto and Agbazo, 2019; Yan et al ., 2020; Shu et al ., 2020d), rainfall (Rubalcaba, 1997; Breslin and Belward, 1999; Sivakumar, 2000; López‐Lambraño et al ., 2016), temperature (Bodri, 1994), air pressure (Rangarajan and Sant, 2004) and relative humidity (Rehman and Siddiqi, 2009a). Likewise, correlation dimension is functionally an estimation of fractal dimension, which has been widely employed in the analysis of nonlinear system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic analysis of meteorological time series in Hong Kong: A nonlinear perspective

Yan¹,

Chan

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Many meteorological systems are chaotic in nature, which inevitably limits its predictability. Accurate prediction of meteorological variables depends primarily on properly diagnosing the complex underlying dynamics. Nonlinear dynamic analysis has shown to be particularly useful for such purpose. In this study, the concept of recurrence analysis was extended to investigate and characterize the underlying dynamics of meteorological time series (i.e., wind speed, temperature, pressure and relative humidity) based on daily observation in Hong Kong during a period from 1998 to 2018. The existence of chaos was clearly identified based on the phase space reconstruction diagram and the recurrence plot. It was shown that the underlying dynamics associated with wind speed appears to indicate higher level of complexity as compared to those of pressure and temperature, which, in consequence, may lead to more irregular time‐dependent behaviour and lower predictability. Moreover, season‐to‐seasonal variability in the dynamics of meteorological time series was evident, particularly for wind speed and temperature. Overall, this study shows that the recurrence analysis can be well applied as a useful diagnostic tool to investigate the dynamics of meteorological systems, which is expected to provide a new avenue regarding the modelling and prediction of the behaviour of meteorological parameters.

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The influence of rainfall time series fractality on forecasting models’ efficiency

Rahmani

Fattahi

2022

Acta Geophys.

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Rainfall Series Fractality in the Baja California State

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

Supply and Demand Analysis of Water Resources. Case Study: Irrigation Water Demand in a Semi-Arid Zone in Mexico

Supply and Demand Analysis of Water Resources. Case Study: Irrigation Water Demand in a Semi-Arid Zone in Mexico

Dynamic analysis of meteorological time series in Hong Kong: A nonlinear perspective

The influence of rainfall time series fractality on forecasting models’ efficiency

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