Rainfed crop yield response to climate change in Iran

Ghamghami, Mahdi; Beiranvand, Javad Pirvali

doi:10.1007/s10113-021-01856-1

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Ref. [49] supports our study, emphasizing rain-fed wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation fluctuations. The consensus on anticipated yield decline in strategic crops due to climate change, including [50], aligns with our findings.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Estimating Yield Response Functions to Nitrogen for Annual Crops in Iran

Aghabeygi,

Dönmez

2024

Agronomy

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Nitrate is a crucial element for crop growth, and its optimal application is essential for maximizing agricultural yield. In Iranian agriculture, there is a substantial gap between recommended nitrate usage and what farmers actually apply. In this study, our primary objective is to determine the most effective utilization of nitrate for crop cultivation. Simultaneously, we aim to analyze the factors that contribute to the disparity between optimal and current nitrate application practices. Furthermore, our research explores the impact of these differences on regional variations in crop yields. This is achieved using a quadratic yield response function model based on unbalanced panel data spanning the years 2000 to 2016, which includes a total of 14 crop activities and encompasses 31 administrative regions. The results show that rice exhibits the highest nitrogen usage, while rain-fed wheat demonstrates the lowest utilization at the optimal point. Depending on whether random- or fixed-effects estimation is found to be the most suitable specification, average yields corresponding to the optimal level of nitrogen use are calculated by region, or the average across all regions. In Iran, the top-performing regions for cereals like rain-fed wheat and irrigated barley can achieve yields of 1.33 and 3 t/ha, respectively. These yields represent a 31% and a 9% increase from the levels observed in 2016. The outcomes derived from the estimated yield response function will be integrated into comprehensive agricultural, economic, and environmental optimization models. These integrated models will facilitate the assessment of various fertilizer policies on fertilizer use, land allocation, farm-household incomes, and environmental externalities, such as nitrate leaching and nitrate balance. This study holds substantial scientific promise, given its exploration of the policy implications surrounding fertilizer usage, making it crucial not only for Iran, but also for many developing nations grappling with inefficient and unsustainable agricultural practices. It represents the first of its kind in the literature, providing estimations of optimal nitrogen use and crop yield points across all regions in Iran. This is achieved through advanced visualization using GIS maps.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Estimating Yield Response Functions to Nitrogen for Annual Crops in Iran

Aghabeygi,

Dönmez

2024

Agronomy

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“…Calculating the relative significance of the alternatives based on the WPM method via Equation (11) (this equation also states that the normal matrix must acquire the power equal to the weights of the criteria). 4.…”

Section: Waspas Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, there are various risks and threats present in rain-fed areas, including climate change, alterations in soil properties, and topographic and human changes, bringing about many restrictions and problems in rain-fed areas. In this regard, rain-fed agriculture is highly sensitive to climate change, especially air temperature and precipitation [11]. Moreover, periodic droughts may lead to socio-economic consequences for the farmers whose revenues depend on rain-fed agriculture [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the Best Strategies for Improving and Developing Sustainable Rain-Fed Agriculture: An Integrated SWOT-BWM-WASPAS Approach

Firoozzare,

Saghaian,

Bahraseman

et al. 2023

Agriculture

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The practice of rain-fed agriculture plays a vital role in both the economy and food security, yet it is subject to various challenges such as climate change and institutional barriers. This study employs the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analyses, Best-Worst Method (BWM), and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) integrated approach to identify the most effective strategies for improving and developing sustainable rain-fed agriculture in Mashhad, Iran. The SWOT analysis identifies the essential sub-factors for improving and developing sustainable rain-fed agriculture. Then, the BWM method is utilized to assign weights to each sub-factor. Finally, the WASPAS method is used to rank the 19 strategies that can help achieve sustainable rain-fed agriculture. The findings of this study reveal that the strategy of establishing an institutional framework to promote sustainable rain-fed agriculture (WT7) has received the highest score. On the other hand, strategies related to supporting policies at the farm level (ST2, WO3, WT2, WT1) were placed in the middle and final priorities. Thus, it is recommended that in the current context of rain-fed agriculture in Mashhad, policymakers prioritize institutional policies related to rain-fed agriculture over farm-level policies. This study proposes a comprehensive and systematic approach to enhance and promote sustainable rain-fed agriculture.

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“…Iran is located in a semi-arid and water-scarce region [3] which makes agriculture highly sensitive to climate disasters. For instance, periodic droughts that occurred over the past two decades [4] had socio-economic implications for farmers' income, depending on agriculture, especially rain-fed agriculture [5]. Farmers often implement options to reduce their exposure to unfavorable weather and prevent agricultural damages [6].…”

Section: Introductionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Estimation of Corn yield losses arising from water shortage by measuring thermalized neutrons

Beiranvand

Ghamghami

Teimouri

2023

Jonra

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Droughts are one of the most significant factors disrupting crop growth and development. This study applied a nuclear technique based on thermalized neutrons to estimate maize yield losses arising from water shortages. The biomass consists of water and light hydrogen (1H), which slows down fast neutrons. Hence, thermalized neutrons can be a helpful proxy to determine crop losses. An experiment was conducted with four treatments related to various levels of water stress in three replications. At the end of the maize growing season,, wet weight of the samples was measured, and then the samples were put around an access tube of the Hydro-probe Neutron Meter to count thermalized neutrons. Thereafter, the samples were then transferred to the oven to measure dry weight and in turn, biomass water equivalent (BWE). Findings showed that the average values of the thermalized neutron count ratio were positively and negatively correlated with BWE and damage (%), respectively. The regression models estimating crop losses were cross-validated based on the leave-one-out technique. An absolute mean error equal to 15% and R 2 greater than 0.6 indicate somewhat satisfactory performance of the models. This study was a breakthrough in the feasibility of applying these instruments. Further studies are recommended for practical applications.

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Rainfed crop yield response to climate change in Iran

Cited by 16 publications

References 76 publications

Estimating Yield Response Functions to Nitrogen for Annual Crops in Iran

Estimating Yield Response Functions to Nitrogen for Annual Crops in Iran

Identifying the Best Strategies for Improving and Developing Sustainable Rain-Fed Agriculture: An Integrated SWOT-BWM-WASPAS Approach

An Estimation of Corn yield losses arising from water shortage by measuring thermalized neutrons

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