Raising Awareness About the Risk of Irregular Migration: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Guinea

Abstract

In response to mounting evidence of harm inflicted on irregular migrants along their journeys from West Africa to Europe, international organizations, civil society organizations, and governments have scaled up campaigns as a tool for raising awareness about the risks of irregular migration. Campaigns aim to counter misinformation by smugglers and facilitate safe migration decisions. Despite the growing number of interventions, there is limited empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of such campaigns. Based on a difference-in-difference design, this study investigates the effect of a mobile cinema and community discussion intervention on the perceptions, knowledge, and intentions of potential irregular migrants in Northern Guinea in 2019. The results show that potential migrants who participated in events were significantly more likely to show awareness gains and less likely to report high intentions to migrate irregularly. While the relative importance of risk perceptions and their impact on migration flows remain unclear, the findings provide evidence supporting the assumption that risk awareness can be a relevant factor in the decisionmaking process of potential irregular migrants. While campaigns may be an effective tool in certain contexts, effect sizes highlight the need for policymakers to keep realistic expectations.

Effectiveness of WhatsApp for Measuring Migration in Follow-Up Phone Surveys. Lessons from a Mode Experiment in Two Low-Income Countries during COVID Contact Restrictions

“…Samples were originally collected in the context of two impact evaluation studies on the effect of IOM's awareness raising campaigns on the risks of irregular migration in Senegal and Guinea. The main aim of the initial study was to measure the knowledge, perceptions, attitudes and intentions among potential migrants (Bia-Zafinikamia et al, 2020;Dunsch et al, 2019;Tjaden & Dunsch, 2021;Tjaden & Gninafon, 2021). The studies were designed as randomized field experiments with two waves of data collection (baseline and endline).…”

“…We conducted a phone follow-up survey based on two non-probability samples that were collected independently from each other in 2018 and 2019 by the International Organization for Migration to study the impact of its information campaigns on irregular migration in Guinea and Senegal (Bia-Zafinikamia et al, 2020;Dunsch et al, 2019;Tjaden & Dunsch, 2021;Tjaden & Gninafon, 2021). The pooled sample included 8,446 respondents covering rural (northwestern Guinea; N=2,144) and urban contexts (Dakar,Senegal;N=6,899).…”

Risky journeys – Risk and decision‐making among potential irregular migrants in Senegal and Guinea

“…This study aims to make an empirical contribution to the limited evidence base on the relationship between risk information and irregular migration – a nascent field of research (Bah & Batista, 2018; Batista & McKenzie, 2018; Shrestha 2020; Tjaden & Dunsch, 2021; Tjaden & Gninafon, 2022).…”

Can Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration Reduce “Backway” Migration from the Gambia?

“…Since launching our project, several recent studies also attempt to more rigorously evaluate information campaigns in different African countries. Tjaden and Dunsch (2021) conducted an experiment in Senegal, and Tjaden and Gninafon (2022) difference-in-differences analysis in Guinea, of IOM movie screenings and community discussions. In both cases they find a change in awareness and migration intentions in first few months after the intervention, but do not go on to measure longer-term changes in migration behavior.…”