Randomness in a mathematical model for the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus ()

Arenas, Abraham J.; González-Parra, Gilberto; Jódar, L.

doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2009.12.001

Cited by 7 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…We employ a conceptually simple Monte Carlo approach by running numerical simulations separately for each parameter which results in a set of corresponding plausible simulation predictions. These predictions can be used to characterize the uncertainty in viral titer time course due to inaccuracy in either single parameters or combinations of parameters [ 26 , 29 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Uncertainty in differential equations has been considered in recent decades in a wide variety of applied areas, such as physics, chemistry, biology, economics, sociology, and medicine [ 24 – 26 ]. Uncertainty in a differential equation model can arise either through uncertainty in the initial conditions or through uncertainty in equation coefficients.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper uncertainty of both types is considered in the context of a viral kinetic model. Studies of the impact of parameter distributions on epidemic models [ 26 ] have proved to be useful in determining upper and lower estimates of the size of an epidemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Uncertainty in A2 Respiratory Syncytial Virus Viral Dynamics

González-Parra

Dobrovolny

2015

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children younger than 1 year of age in the United States. Moreover, RSV is being recognized more often as a significant cause of respiratory illness in older adults. Although RSV has been studied both clinically and in vitro, a quantitative understanding of the infection dynamics is still lacking. In this paper, we study the effect of uncertainty in the main parameters of a viral kinetics model of RSV. We first characterize the RSV replication cycle and extract parameter values by fitting the mathematical model to in vivo data from eight human subjects. We then use Monte Carlo numerical simulations to determine how uncertainty in the parameter values will affect model predictions. We find that uncertainty in the infection rate, eclipse phase duration, and infectious lifespan most affect the predicted dynamics of RSV. This study provides the first estimate of in vivo RSV infection parameters, helping to quantify RSV dynamics. Our assessment of the effect of uncertainty will help guide future experimental design to obtain more precise parameter values.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Uncertainty in A2 Respiratory Syncytial Virus Viral Dynamics

González-Parra

Dobrovolny

2015

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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“…Several compartment models for RSV transmission have been published to date, most using Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) dynamics and with a sine or cosine forcing term to account for seasonal variation in transmission [ 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 ]. Few studies have used dynamic models to explore vaccination strategies for RSV, and these have generally investigated RSV vaccination from a cost-effectiveness perspective [ 37 , 38 ], for example in the context of a newborn vaccination strategy in the Spanish region of Valencia [ 39 , 40 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination

2017

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Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy, and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilised under certain extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine. Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be acheived with 75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical.

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“…As a result, it may provide useful information by constructing mathematical models to describe the disease spreading in the real world. Biological invasion is an issue of increasing importance in epidemiology and attracts considerable attention both from theoretical and field epidemiologists [24,25,3,29,32,2,8,28,9,23]. One of the most important goals of investigating mathematical epidemiology is predicting how populations diseases transmit in space [19,27], which can be used to estimate the formation of spatial patterns on the large scale and the transmission velocity of diseases, and in turn guide policy decisions for disease control.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patch invasion in a spatial epidemic model

2015

Applied Mathematics and Computation

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Randomness in a mathematical model for the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus ()

Cited by 7 publications

References 33 publications

Assessing Uncertainty in A2 Respiratory Syncytial Virus Viral Dynamics

Assessing Uncertainty in A2 Respiratory Syncytial Virus Viral Dynamics

Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination

Patch invasion in a spatial epidemic model

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