Range Expansion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe Is Promoted by Climate Change

Abstract

Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.

Distribution map ofAmbrosia artemisiifoliaL. (Asteraceae) in Italy

“…For the southern Italy the species was previously observed in the Calabria region (Conti et al 2005), however such observation was not confirmed later (not included in the map). Such a pattern seems to be confirmed by the species distribution models built by Cunze et al (2013) and Rasmussen (2013), which predict a scarce presence of the species in southern Italy and an expansion towards northern Europe. In our opinion, the difficulty for the species to colonize strictly Mediterranean regions could be due to the competition of more adapted species and to bioclimatic filters (Haider et al 2010;Kueffer et al 2013).…”

“…Over the last century the species has greatly spread across Italy Bouvet et al 2013). Based on the numerous recent new records and due to the effects of climate change, A. artemisiifolia is expected to further spread (Cunze et al 2013), toward higher elevations also, as already observed for Senecio inaequidens DC., another highly invasive species in Italy (Vacchiano et al 2013). The records of A. artemisiifolia in the Mediterranean biogeographic region (central and southern Italy) are infrequent and/or ephemeral (like in the surrounding of Florence and Rome).…”

“…Its spread across Europe probably started later, during the 19th century, from France, Germany and central and eastern Europe, due to accidental introduction events (Hegi 1918;Chauvel et al 2006). To date, the species is expanding further toward northern Europe due to its great dispersal ability, perhaps also favoured by climate changes (Brandes & Nitzsche 2006;Cunze et al 2013). Across its invasive range, A. artemisiifolia grows mostly in anthropogenic habitats and tolerates different soil and climate conditions: it is widely distributed in disturbed areas such as wastelands, road sides, railways and river corridors (Smith et al 2013).…”

“…Comprehensive distributional data (mostly based on herbarium specimens) were gathered in other European countries or regions, e. g. Austria, Poland, and Serbia (Csontos et al 2010;Tokarska-Guzik et al 2011). Recent studies have predicted its current and future distribution across Europe (Cunze et al 2013). In Italy, the first occurrence was reported from the surroundings of Alba (Cuneo province) in 1902, as a casual species in the garden of the Agricultural High School (Vignolo-Lutati 1934 and1935;Bouvet et al 2013) , but a comprehensive study on its distribution at national level is still lacking.…”

Ambrosia artemisiifolia in the Czech Republic

“…A considerable increase in abundance is also recorded in southern and central France, in particular along the Rhône valley and on the plains of northern Italy , Essl et al 2015b. It is predicted that it will spread further in Europe, favoured by ongoing global warming; the species is assumed to benefit from warmer summers and absence of late autumn frosts (Cunze et al 2013, Richter et al 2013a, Storkey et al 2014, Leiblein-Wild et al 2016. In contrast, some regions, especially in the south, are predicted to become unsuitable due to the increase in the incidence of summer droughts and temperature (Jacob et al 2013).…”