Range Size and Niche Breadth as Predictors of Climate-Induced Habitat Change in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

Abstract

While there is mounting evidence that ongoing changes in the climate system are shifting species ranges poleward and to higher altitudes, responses to climate change vary considerably between species. In general, it can be expected that species responses to climate change largely depend on how broad their ecological niches are, but evidence is still scant. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted future climate change on the availability of suitable habitat for 14 Epipactis (Orchidaceae) species, and tested whether habitat specialists would experience greater changes in the extent of their habitats than habitat generalists. We used Maxent to model the ecological niche of each species in terms of climate, soil, elevation and land-use and projected it onto climate scenarios predicted for 2061–2080. To test the hypothesis that temperate terrestrial orchid species with small ranges or small niche breadths may be at greater risk under climate change than species with wide ranges or large niche breadths, we related niche breadth in both geographic and environmental space to changes in size and location of suitable habitat. The habitat distributions of half of the species shifted northwards in future projections. The area of suitable habitat increased for eight species but decreased for the remaining six species. If expansion at the leading edge of the distribution was not possible, the area of suitable habitat decreased for 12 species. Species with wide niche breadth in geographic space experienced greater northwards expansions and higher habitat suitability scores than species with small niche breadth. Niche breadth in environmental space was not significantly related to change in habitat distribution. Overall, these results indicate that terrestrial orchid species with a wide distribution will be more capable of shifting their distributions under climate change than species with a limited distribution, but only if they are fully able to expand into habitats at the leading edge of their distributions.

Loss of fungal symbionts and changes in pollinator availability caused by climate change will affect the distribution and survival chances of myco-heterotrophic orchid species

“…The same scheme of poleward range shift as a response to the global warming was already predicted to occur in other plant 87 and animal 88 , 89 species. Evans and Jacquemyn 90 suggested that terrestrial Orchidaceae with a wide distribution will be more capable of shifting their distributions under global warming than species with a restricted geographical range. While obviously species with broader environmental tolerance have higher survival chances than more specialized taxa, the fragility of ecological interactions can further affect persistence of widely distributed organisms.…”

“…While obviously species with broader environmental tolerance have higher survival chances than more specialized taxa, the fragility of ecological interactions can further affect persistence of widely distributed organisms. Studies on future distribution of European orchids are rather scarce and while some taxa ( Nigritella nigra 91 , Pseudorchis albida 92 ) are predicted to lose their suitable niches across their ranges, others are expected to experience a poleward range shift (some Orchis 93 , Ophrys insectifera 94 , some Epipactis 90 ). Noteworthy, none of the previous research considered the importance of mycorrhizal fungi on Orchidaceae distribution and most of the published analyses ignored also the future availability of orchid pollen vectors.…”

Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land‐cover changes

“…Range expansion could be attributed to the large geographic ranges of most studied species, including E. edulis . Plants with a large geographic range are capable of thriving in varying climatic conditions, which could make them less susceptible to climate change (e.g., Beltrán et al, 2014; Evans & Jacquemyn, 2022). However, when changes in vegetation cover were considered (a more realistic model), we predicted a negative impact for most species, including E. edulis .…”

Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach

“…The result indicates that species with a very restricted distribution should suffer a low proportion of losses in their current distribution areas, while widespread species should suffer the highest proportion of losses. This seems contradictory at first glance, as species with restricted ranges are expected to lose more area than widely distributed ones, due to the expectation that restricted ranges result from narrower niches (Slatyer et al, 2013;Saupe et al, 2015;Evans and Jacquemyn, 2022). A possible explanation for the lower proportion of loss for species with very restricted ranges may be related to the extreme specialization that can lead some species to "escape" the full impacts of climate change (Foden et al, 2013).…”