Ranked-Choice Voting and the Potential for Improved Electoral Performance of Third-Party Candidates in America

Abstract

Proponents of ranked-choice voting (RCV) highlight a number of arguments for why such an approach to elections should be adopted. One major argument is that ranked-choice voting will encourage voters to support more third-party or independent candidates and break the electoral stranglehold of the two main parties in America. Considering approximately two-thirds of Americans want a third major party this argument may prove appealing to American voters, but there is currently no empirical evidence to support such claims. In this project, we explore a theory of why ranked-choice voting may increase voter support for third-party or independent candidates and test the argument that RCV will improve the fortunes of third-party candidates using a survey experiment. We find significant support for the claim that ranked-choice voting increases support for third-party candidates.

New or “normal” election? Understanding ranking activity in New York City's first ranked choice voting election

“…Nielson (2017) demonstrates that RCV does not necessarily encourage voters to rank outside their preferred party (though she does find 10 percent that do so), while Cerrone and McClintock (2021) demonstrate that since Maine adopted RCV, these voters have been more open to new parties and candidates. This finding is also supported by Simmons, Gutierrez, and Transue (2022), who find that RCV increases third‐party support in their experimental study.…”

Ranked-Choice Voting and Democratic Attitudes

“…By including a set of control variables, we are also maintaining a consistent approach as the one utilized by Nielson (2017) who utilized full models with control variables for RCV experiments. Other journal entries with full models with control variables include Simmons et al (2022), Blais et al (2012), and Anderson and Lotempio (2002), among others.…”

“…In some electoral races, such as primaries, where there could be a large and diverse number of relatively strong candidates, RCV can potentially have a stronger impact on that race. Furthermore, in addition to analysis on voter distribution and strength of candidates, other RCV related research analyzes how implementing RCV may increase support for third-party candidates (Simmons et al, 2022). As RCV is implemented in major cities such as New York City and begins to capture some attention, researchers can investigate and analyze some of the claims brought by the proponents of RCV.…”

Come‐from‐behind victories under ranked‐choice voting and runoff: The impact on voter satisfaction

“…A key concern about plurality has been the violation of a bedrock democratic principle: majority support for election winners. In most democratic countries, the “legitimacy of majoritarianism” (Bullock & Johnson, 1992, p. 175) and “the will of the majority” (Simmons et al, 2022, p. 812) are salient norms. But, under plurality, in elections with more than two candidates, and especially in elections with a yet larger number, the possibility of a plurality winner unlikely or uncertain to enjoy majority support (PWUM) is considerable.…”

“…There are various important criteria beyond the scope of this article. Both RCV and runoff have been praised for encouraging ideological moderation (Bordignon et al, 2016; Colomer, 2004, for runoff; Horowitz, 1997; Reilly, 2018, for RCV) and for opening the party system to new parties (Birch, 2003; McClintock, 2018, for runoff; Drutman, 2020; Simmons et al, 2022, for RCV). In addition, RCV is believed to promote campaign civility (Donovan et al, 2016; Robb, 2011).…”