Ranking species based on sensitivity to perturbations under non-equilibrium community dynamics

Medeiros, Lucas P.; Allesina, Stefano; Dakos, Vasilis; Sugihara, George; Saavedra, Serguei

doi:10.1101/2022.07.23.501258

Cited by 3 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…2a). We assume that J is almost constant from time t to t + k , which is a reasonable assumption whenever k or are small (31). Note, however, that J can change across a non-equilibrium attractor because it depends on the community state N (i.e., it is state-dependent).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At any given state N, this community can be affected by a small pulse perturbation p = [p 1 , ..., p S ] ⊤ that changes N into Ñ (34). The linearized dynamics of such perturbation is given by (Supporting Information Section 1 ) (31,40):…”

Section: Community Sensitivity As Volume Expansion Ratementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In spite of this recent progress, the current frameworks to quantify response to perturbations at the community level (20,29) and at the species level (31) under non-equilibrium dynamics have remained disconnected. Yet, investigating potential time-varying correlations in how species respond to perturbations may provide the key to understand the links between responses to perturbations at these two levels of biological organization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, a community under non-equilibrium dynamics may have a time-varying sensitivity to changes in environmental conditions (29, 30). In addition to whole-community response, the sensitivity of individual species to perturbations has also been shown to change over time, implying that the identity of the most sensitive species also depends on community state (31). In spite of this recent progress, the current frameworks to quantify response to perturbations at the community level (20, 29) and at the species level (31) under non-equilibrium dynamics have remained disconnected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to whole-community response, the sensitivity of individual species to perturbations has also been shown to change over time, implying that the identity of the most sensitive species also depends on community state (31). In spite of this recent progress, the current frameworks to quantify response to perturbations at the community level (20, 29) and at the species level (31) under non-equilibrium dynamics have remained disconnected. Yet, investigating potential time-varying correlations in how species respond to perturbations may provide the key to understand the links between responses to perturbations at these two levels of biological organization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the state-dependent impact of species correlated responses on community sensitivity to perturbations

Medeiros

Saavedra

2022

Preprint

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Understanding how communities respond to perturbations requires us to consider not only changes in the abundance of individual species, but also correlated changes that can emerge through interspecific effects. However, our knowledge of this phenomenon is mostly constrained to populations at equilibrium, where interspecific effects are fixed. Here, we introduce a framework to disentangle the impact of species correlated responses on community sensitivity to perturbations when interspecific effects change over time due to non-equilibrium dynamics. We partition the volume expansion rate of perturbed abundances (community sensitivity) into contributions of individual species and of species correlations by converting the time-varying Jacobian matrix containing interspecific effects into a time-varying covariance matrix. Using population dynamics models, we demonstrate that species correlations change considerably across time and continuously alternate between reducing and having no impact on community sensitivity. Importantly, these alternating impacts depend on the abundance of particular species and can be detected even from noisy time series. We showcase our framework using two experimental predator-prey time series and find that the impact of species correlations is modulated by prey abundance---as theoretically expected. Our results provide new insights into how and when species interactions can dampen community sensitivity when abundances fluctuate over time.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Community Sensitivity As Volume Expansion Ratementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the state-dependent impact of species correlated responses on community sensitivity to perturbations

Medeiros

Saavedra

2022

Preprint

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Structural asymmetry in biotic interactions as a tool to understand and predict ecological persistence

Allen‐Perkins

García‐Callejas

Bartomeus

et al. 2023

Preprint

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A universal feature of ecological systems is that species do not interact with others with the same sign and strength. Yet, the consequences of this asymmetry in biotic interactions for the persistence (i.e. long-term viability) of individual species and entire communities remains unclear. To address this gap of knowledge, we conceptualize in this perspective these ecological observations by implementing a set of tools into the field of structural stability. By quantifying independently the size from the shape of the so-called feasibility domain, we show that it is possible to obtain simultaneously an understanding of the opportunities for all species within a community to persist as well as the vulnerability of individual species to extinction under changing environmental conditions. We further demonstrate that these novel metrics carry also predictive value. Specifically, the shape-related metrics predict annual changes in species abundances during seven years in a Mediterranean grassland. Our approach, which is designed to be applied to any ecological system regardless of their number of species and type of interactions, shows that is possible to obtain both mechanistic and predictive information of ecological persistence across levels of organization, providing a clear link for a stronger integration of theoretical and empirical research.

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Early warning signals are hampered by a lack of critical transitions in empirical lake data

O’Brien

Deb

Thackeray

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Quantifying the potential for abrupt non-linear changes in ecological communities is a key managerial goal, leading to a significant body of research aimed at identifying indicators of approaching regime shifts. Most of this work has built on the theory of bifurcations, with the assumption that critical transitions are a common feature of complex ecological systems. This has led to the development of a suite of often inaccurate early warning signals (EWSs), with more recent techniques seeking to overcome their limitations by analysing multivariate time series or applying machine learning. However, it remains unclear whether regime shifts and/or critical transitions are common occurrences in natural systems, and - if they are present - whether classic and second-generation EWS methods predict rapid community change. Here, using multi-trophic data on nine lakes from around the world, we both identify the type of transition a lake is exhibiting, and the reliability of classic and second generation EWSs methods to predict whole ecosystem change. We find few instances of critical transitions in our lake dataset, with different trophic levels often expressing different forms of abrupt change. The ability to predict this change is highly technique dependant, with multivariate EWSs generally classifying correctly, classical rolling window univariate EWSs performing not better than chance, and recently developed machine learning techniques performing poorly. Our results suggest that predictive ecology should start to move away from the concept of critical transitions and develop methods suitable for predicting change in the absence of the strict bounds of bifurcation theory.

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Ranking species based on sensitivity to perturbations under non-equilibrium community dynamics

Cited by 3 publications

References 54 publications

Understanding the state-dependent impact of species correlated responses on community sensitivity to perturbations

Understanding the state-dependent impact of species correlated responses on community sensitivity to perturbations

Structural asymmetry in biotic interactions as a tool to understand and predict ecological persistence

Early warning signals are hampered by a lack of critical transitions in empirical lake data

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