Rapid Advance of Spring Arrival Dates in Long-Distance Migratory Birds

Jonzén, Niclas; Lindén, Andreas; Ergon, Torbjørn; Knudsen, Eirunn; Vik, Jon Olav; Rubolini, Diego; Piacentini, Dario; Brinch, Christian; Spina, Fernando; Karlsson, Lennart; Stervander, Martin; Andersson, Arne; Waldenström, Jonas; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Edvardsen, Erik; Solvang, Rune; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

doi:10.1126/science.1126119

Cited by 418 publications

(513 citation statements)

References 20 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

476

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…This fact prevented us from quantifying change in migration phenology in relation to local climate, because climate during any part of the migratory path could potentially affect change in phenology (44,45). Therefore, we analyzed change in phenology over time, assuming that such change was due to change in climate, as has been done in other studies (8,9,21,35,46,47). Changes in migration dates were the slope of the simple linear regression of migration date on year, expressed as days/year.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining

Møller

Rubolini

Lehikoinen

2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

633

668

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining

Møller

Rubolini

Lehikoinen

2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

633

668

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Few studies have investigated the impact on migrant species due to changing climate conditions along migration routes on stopover sites and wintering grounds (Tøttrup et al 2008). The potential impacts of climate change on the breeding ranges of European birds have been estimated recently (Huntley et al 2008), and changes in migration phenology have been reported in numerous species (Jonzén et al 2006). However, we still need to study the potential impacts on winter ranges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

et al. 2009

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is L13 per cent (from L97 to D980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500G373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.

show abstract

“…In recent years, evidence has mounted about its impacts on different groups of species and stages of a species lifecycle (Hughes, 2000;Parmesan, 2006). Especially for birds (Crick, 2004;Chambers et al, 2005;Leech and Crick, 2007;Wormworth and Mallon, 2007), climate change has been shown to induce poleward (Hitch and Leberg, 2007) and upward shifts of the distributional ranges (Pounds et al, 1999), to alter the timing of major seasonal events such as migration (Jenni and Kéry, 2003;Jonzen et al, 2006;Gordo, 2007) or egg laying (Crick and Sparks, 1999;Torti and Dunn, 2005;Both and te Marvelde, 2007) and to influence survival and productivity and hence, population dynamics (Sanz et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Maggini¹,

Lehmann²,

Kéry³

et al. 2011

Ecological Modelling

147

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tClimate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either "move, adapt or die". In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.

show abstract

Rapid Advance of Spring Arrival Dates in Long-Distance Migratory Birds

Cited by 418 publications

References 20 publications

Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining

Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About