Rapid cost decrease of renewables and storage accelerates the decarbonization of China’s power system

Abstract

The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have dropped markedly since 2010, however, many recent studies and reports around the world have not adequately captured such dramatic decrease. Those costs are projected to decline further in the near future, bringing new prospects for the widespread penetration of renewables and extensive power-sector decarbonization that previous policy discussions did not fully consider. Here we show if cost trends for renewables continue, 62% of China's electricity could come from nonfossil sources by 2030 at a cost that is 11% lower than achieved through a business-as-usual approach. Further, China's power sector could cut half of its 2015 carbon emissions at a cost about 6% lower compared to business-as-usual conditions.

Net Economic Benefits from Shifting Consumption, Labor Elasticity, and Productivity Gains During an Accelerated Renewable Energy Transition in China

“…To better analyze the economic impacts of renewable energy cost reductions, we disaggregate the power sector into electricity transmission, electricity storage, and eight different generation technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass) following the methods by Mu et al 13 and Wing. 39 The generation shares by technology type are based on data from the China Electricity Council, 3 whereas the cost shares by investment, operations and maintenance, and fuel for each technology are based on levelized cost data from the International Energy Agency 40 and He et al 11 Core Model…”

“…We evaluate six scenarios (Table 1). In the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the productivity of renewables (wind, solar, and electricity storage) is assumed to follow historical trends (He et al 2020), 11 with sustained but moderate cost reductions into the future. In the low-cost renewable scenario (R), more rapid productivity growth in renewables continues in alignment with recent indications, simulating how lower renewable energy costs provide direct stimulus to the economy.…”

“…5,6 In market economies, this crossover cost trend will support autonomous power system transformation, reduce fossil fuel dependence and related environmental impacts, [8][9][10] and reduce wholesale and retail electricity costs. 11 As a result, new opportunities will arise for cutting consumer and manufacturer energy costs, improving human welfare, and boosting economic growth.…”

Powering Multiple Gas Condensate Wells in Russia’s Arctic: Power Supply Systems Based on Renewable Energy Sources

“…It is very important that a large number of studies dealing with climate change have recently been carried out and the use of renewable energy sources is considered to be one of the factors that contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere [33], changes in economic structures, and the development of low-carbon and other strategies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions [34], including carbon capture and storage (CCS) [35,36]. Due to the rapid decrease in the costs of renewable energy sources and storage systems, national power systems can be decarbonized more quickly [37].…”

Using Existing Infrastructure to Realize Low-Cost and Flexible Photovoltaic Power Generation in Areas with High-Power Demand in China

“…As the benefits of PV technology, such as reducing pollution emissions and maintaining sustainability, have been widely recognized ( King and van den Bergh, 2018 ; Bogdanov et al., 2019 ), PV technology is also becoming increasingly attractive as it becomes more economically competitive with fossil fuel power generation ( Yan et al., 2019 ; Green, 2019 ; He et al., 2020 ). As the prices for PV modules consistently hit new lows, the soft costs associated with land use and grid connection account for an increasing proportion of the total ( Strupeit, 2017 ; Steffen et al., 2020 ; Yu et al., 2018 ).…”