Rapid deforestation threatens mid‐elevational endemic birds but climate change is most important at higher elevations

Abstract

Deceased.ABSTRACT Aim Deforestation and climate change are two of the most serious threats to tropical birds. Here, we combine fine-scale climatic and dynamic land cover models to forecast species vulnerability in rain forest habitats.Location Sulawesi, Indonesia.Methods We sampled bird communities on four mountains across three seasons in Lore Lindu National Park, Sulawesi, Indonesia (a globally important hotspot of avian endemism), to characterize relationships between elevation and abundance. Deforestation from 2000 to 2010 was quantified, and predictors of deforestation were identified. Future forest area was projected under two land use change scenarios -one assuming current deforestation rates and another assuming a 50% reduction in deforestation. A digital elevation model and an adiabatic lapse rate were used to create a fine-scale map of temperature in the national park. Then, the effects of climate change were projected by fitting statistical models of species abundance as a function of current temperature and forecasting future abundance based on warming from low-and highemissions climate change.Results The national park lost 11.8% of its forest from 2000 to 2010. Modelbased projections indicate that high-elevation species (white-eared myza Myza sarasinorum and Sulawesi leaf-warbler Phylloscopus sarasinorum) might be buffered from deforestation because their ranges are isolated from human settlement, but these species may face steep population declines from climate change (by as much as 61%). The middle-elevation sulphur-bellied whistler Pachycephala sulfuriventer is predicted to undergo minor declines from climate change (8-11% reduction), while deforestation is predicted to cause larger declines of 13-19%.Main conclusions The biological richness and rapid deforestation now occurring inside the national park emphasize the need for increased enforcement, while our modelling suggests that climate change is most threatening to highelevation endemics. These findings are likely applicable to other highland tropical sites where deforestation is encroaching from below and climate change is stressing high-elevation species from above.

Projected distribution shifts and protected area coverage of range-restricted Andean birds under climate change

“…An increase in temperature can cause mountain tropical species to shift their distribution upslope. In the search for colder climates they may reduce their range size (Buermann et al, 2011;La Sorte and Jetz, 2010) and suffer population declines (Shoo et al, 2005;Harris et al, 2014). Indeed, in the last 42 years the mountain plant species in Peru have been migrating in altitude (Lutz et al, 2013), and birds have been moving gradually (Forero-Medina et al, 2011a).…”

“…Highland species may be very vulnerable to extinction induced by climate change (Şekercioğlu et al, 2008;Harris et al, 2014). The warming temperatures may force the mountain species to shift upslope, reducing their geographic ranges almost entirely, decreasing their population, and driving them to extinction (Shoo et al, 2005;Harris et al, 2014).…”

“…Highland species may be very vulnerable to extinction induced by climate change (Şekercioğlu et al, 2008;Harris et al, 2014). The warming temperatures may force the mountain species to shift upslope, reducing their geographic ranges almost entirely, decreasing their population, and driving them to extinction (Shoo et al, 2005;Harris et al, 2014). Restricted-range and endemic species are also projected to be vulnerable to climate change (Malcolm et al, 2006;IPCC, 2007;Williams et al, 2007;Ohlemüller et al, 2008;Şekercioğlu et al, 2008;Harris et al, 2014).…”

“…The warming temperatures may force the mountain species to shift upslope, reducing their geographic ranges almost entirely, decreasing their population, and driving them to extinction (Shoo et al, 2005;Harris et al, 2014). Restricted-range and endemic species are also projected to be vulnerable to climate change (Malcolm et al, 2006;IPCC, 2007;Williams et al, 2007;Ohlemüller et al, 2008;Şekercioğlu et al, 2008;Harris et al, 2014). In the northern Andes, about 43% of bird species may reduce their geographic range and some species may become extinct due to climate change (Velásquez-Tibatá et al, 2012).…”

“…In Costa Rica, the populations of nearly half of 77 forest bird species may decline, and seven of the eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to Costa Rica and Panamá (Gasner et al, 2010). The populations of endemic high-elevation birds in Indonesia are also projected to decline (Harris et al, 2014). Life history traits and dispersal ability among others factors could have a great influence determining current and future species ranges as well as their vulnerability to climate change (Bellard et al, 2012;Rehm, 2014;Pacifici et al, 2015).…”