Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Observed by AMSU Satellites

Qian, Tianchen

doi:10.1029/2019gl083488

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…After two days of "tropicalization" the cyclones starts to weaken and by the 1st of October (Figure 9e and f) the divergence is almost null and the warming is decreased. The results obtained here resemble the ones obtained also for tropical cyclones (Geetha and Balachandran, 2016;Lin and Qian, 2019) while intensification is occurring. For this reason, it can be said that Ianos and Zorbas actually undergo a tropical phase.…”

Section: Tropical-like Phasesupporting

confidence: 88%

Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones forecasts and analysis usingthe ECMWF Ensemble Forecasting System (IFS) with physical parameterizations perturbations

Saraceni

Silvestri

Bechtold³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones, called “medicanes”, present a multiscale nature and their track and intensity have been recognized as highly sensitive to large-scale atmospheric forcing and to diabatic heating as represented by the physical parameterizations in numerical weather prediction. Here, we analyse the structure and investigate the predictability of medicanes with the aid of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) ensemble forecasting system with 25 perturbed members at 9 km horizontal resolution (compared to the 16 km operational resolution). The IFS ensemble system includes the representation of initial uncertainties from the ensemble data assimilation (EDA) and a recently developed uncertainty representation of the model physics with perturbed parameters (Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations, SPP). The focus is on three medicanes, Ianos, Zorbas and Trixie that have been among the strongest in recent years. In particular, we have carried out separate ensemble simulations with initial perturbations, full physics SPP, and with a reduced set of SPP, where only convection is perturbed to highlight the convective nature of medicanes. It is found that compared to the operational analysis and satellite rainfall data, the forecasts reproduce the tropical-like features of these cyclones. Furthermore, the SPP simulations compare to the initial condition perturbation ensemble, in terms of tracking, intensity, precipitation and more generally in terms of ensemble skill and spread. Moreover, the study confirms that similar processes are at play in the development of the investigated three medicanes, in that the predictability of these cyclones is linked not only to the prediction of the precursor events (namely the deep cut-off low) but also to the interaction of the upper-level dynamically driven Potential Vorticity (PV) streamer with the tropospheric PV anomaly that is driven by surface heating and stratiform and convective condensational heating.

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Section: Tropical-like Phasesupporting

confidence: 88%

Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones forecasts and analysis usingthe ECMWF Ensemble Forecasting System (IFS) with physical parameterizations perturbations

Saraceni

Silvestri

Bechtold³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…The studies indicate that RI tends to occur in areas with specific environmental conditions such as weaker vertical wind shear (VWS), warmer sea‐surface temperature (SST), higher low‐level relative humidity (RH), and prevailing easterly upper‐level flow. Researches also suggest that internal processes play a significant role in driving RI, as demonstrated by the impact of inner‐core convective bursts (e.g., Heymsfield et al., 2001; Guimond et al., 2010), low‐level updraft mass flux (e.g., Rogers, 2010) and stratospheric downdrafts (Lin & Qian, 2019) on RI processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity of Tropical Cyclones Rapid Intensification

Peng,

Tian,

Fang

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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The study investigates the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northwestern Pacific. We found that rapid changes in the maximum wind speed (Vmax) and the minimum central pressure (Pmin) are not always concurrent. RI cases can be categorized into three types: (a) RIv, only Vmax strengthens rapidly; (b) RIp, only Pmin decreases rapidly; (c) RIpv, rapid changes in Vmax and Pmin occur concurrently. At the onset of RI, RIv‐type TCs exhibit the weakest intensity and the smallest size, with deep convection concentrated in the inner‐core region; RIp‐type TCs are characterized by the strongest cyclone intensity and the largest outer‐core size, with strong convection covering the inner‐ and outer‐core regions; RIpv‐type TCs show moderate intensity, size, and convection distribution. For RIpv, significant strengthening of wind profile is concentrated in the inner‐core region, while for RIp it is more prominent in the outer‐core.

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“…Case studies of hurricanes (e.g., Blackwell 2000;Lee and Bell 2007;Zhao et al, 2008) also revealed the process and related mechanism of axisymmetric RI. In addition to ground-based radar, studies using satellite observations (Lin and Qian 2019) and airborne radar (Black et al, 1996;Rogers et al, 2013) have discussed the structural characteristics of RI of TCs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetric Inner-Core Structure and its Impact on Rapid Intensification of a Sheared Tropical Cyclone

Liu

Wang²,

Zhao

2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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Based on ground-based Doppler radar data with high spatial and temporal resolution, our study focuses on rapid intensification (RI) of a sheared tropical cyclone (TC). The asymmetric inner-core structure and its impact on RI are presented using the Advanced Regional Prediction System-3DVAR. The time evolution of the TC inner-core characteristics shows that Meranti experiences two stages of RI: the asymmetric dominant period and the axisymmetric dominant period. The comparison between the two RI stages shows that the vortex intensified more in the asymmetric stage than the axisymmetric stage. The wavenumber-1 component introduced by the vertical wind shear dominates the asymmetric structure. In the moderate-to-strong shear environment, deep convection occurs mainly in the downshear-left quadrant, generating substantial diabatic heating in the downshear region. Under a suitable inner-core structure configuration, the downshear vortices are entrained cyclonically inward, resulting in RI. It is the interaction between the axisymmetric inner-core structure of the TC and the mesoscale vortex that controls the intensification process, which can be replicated by the nondivergent barotropic model with a similar initial field. This infrequent case provided observation of RI during a strong shear period, which suggests that the inner core structure is vital for TC RI.

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Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Observed by AMSU Satellites

Cited by 9 publications

References 37 publications

Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones forecasts and analysis usingthe ECMWF Ensemble Forecasting System (IFS) with physical parameterizations perturbations

Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones forecasts and analysis usingthe ECMWF Ensemble Forecasting System (IFS) with physical parameterizations perturbations

Diversity of Tropical Cyclones Rapid Intensification

Asymmetric Inner-Core Structure and its Impact on Rapid Intensification of a Sheared Tropical Cyclone

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