Rapid review of COVID-19 epidemic estimation studies for Iran

Abstract

Background To inform researchers about the methodology and results of epidemic estimation studies performed for COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, we aimed to perform a rapid review. Methods We searched for and included published articles, preprint manuscripts and reports that estimated numbers of cumulative or daily deaths or cases of COVID-19 in Iran. We found 131 studies and included 29 of them. Results The included studies provided outputs for a total of 84 study-model/scenario combinations. Sixteen studies used 3–4 compartmental disease models. At the end of month two of the epidemic (2020-04-19), the lowest (and highest) values of predictions were 1,777 (388,951) for cumulative deaths, 20,588 (2,310,161) for cumulative cases, and at the end of month four (2020-06-20), were 3,590 (1,819,392) for cumulative deaths, and 144,305 (4,266,964) for cumulative cases. Highest estimates of cumulative deaths (and cases) for latest date available in 2020 were 418,834 on 2020-12-19 (and 41,475,792 on 2020-12-31). Model estimates predict an ominous course of epidemic progress in Iran. Increase in percent population using masks from the current situation to 95% might prevent 26,790 additional deaths (95% confidence interval 19,925–35,208) by the end of year 2020. Conclusions Meticulousness and degree of details reported for disease modeling and statistical methods used in the included studies varied widely. Greater heterogeneity was observed regarding the results of predicted outcomes. Consideration of minimum and preferred reporting items in epidemic estimation studies might better inform future revisions of the available models and new models to be developed. Not accounting for under-reporting drives the models’ results misleading.

“Mass gathering events and COVID-19 transmission in Borriana (Spain): A retrospective cohort study”

“…MGEs cover different types of event and contexts such as public and private celebrations, festivals, religious events and pilgrimages, sporting and touristic events, and political meetings. The crucial role of MGEs in the global propagation of the disease has been evidenced in several countries, including China [ 3 ], Iran [ 4 ], Malaysia [ 5 ], Italy [ 6 ], Spain [ 7 ], France [ 8 ], Germany [ 9 ], Jordan [ 10 ], Malta [ 11 ], Switzerland [ 12 ], and Malawi [ 13 ]. Significant international efforts have been made to implement specific measures, risk assessment and surveillance, and event cancellations in order to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from MGEs [ 14 – 17 ].…”

U.S.-Imposed Economic Sanctions on Iran in the COVID-19 Crisis From the Human Rights Perspective

“…6 Epidemic estimation studies for Iran claim that the exact number of daily deaths or cases of COVID-19 is much greater than those in Iran's official reports. 7 Following COVID-19 restrictions in Iran, the collapse of economic activity and financial markets began. The government entered an economic crisis alongside the U.S.-imposed embargo.…”

CovidVisualized: Visualized compilation of international updating models’ estimates of COVID-19 pandemic at global and country levels

“…Eligibility criteria: Eligibility criteria for the target COVID-19 models to be included are (1) an international model scope, and (2) periodic updates. "International model" denotes a model that estimates COVID-19 cases or infections and deaths for all countries of the world, with global-level estimates that equate the sum of the national-level estimates.…”

“…Finding the eligible models: The eligible models were found within the literature search of a previously publication, "Rapid review of COVID-19 epidemic estimation studies for Iran" [1], and the results were veri ed by comparison with models found in a recently published study on "Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models" [2]. While non-updating or one-time models can be contemporaneously useful, their results would not sustain up-to-dateness in the long run, especially with emergence of new variants of concern and various degrees of uncertainties in progression of vaccination coverage.…”

“…Identi ed eligible models: Five international and periodically updated models of the COVID-19 pandemic were identi ed: (1) DELPHI [1], Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (abbreviation used in this work: DELP) [3], (2) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle (IHME) [4], (3) Imperial College, London (IMPE) [5], (4) Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos (LANL) [6], (5) University of Southern California, Los Angeles, by Srivastava, Ajitesh (SRIV) [7]. O cial reports of countries to World Health Organization, curated by Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus resource center (JOHN) [8] were also used for comparison.…”