Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Cruz-McDonnell, Kirsten; Wolf, Blair O.

doi:10.1111/gcb.13092

Cited by 86 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 116 publications

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“…Evidence from arid and semiarid ecosystems indicates that shifts in avian abundance associated with heat waves and drought are already occurring (1,26,27).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration

Albright

Mutiibwa

Gerson

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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189

212

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Extreme high environmental temperatures produce a variety of consequences for wildlife, including mass die-offs. Heat waves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and extent, and are projected to increase further under climate change. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of die-off risk are poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of heat waves on evaporative water loss (EWL) and survival in five desert passerine birds across the southwestern United States using a combination of physiological data, mechanistically informed models, and hourly geospatial temperature data. We ask how rates of EWL vary with temperature across species; how frequently, over what areas, and how rapidly lethal dehydration occurs; how EWL and die-off risk vary with body mass; and how dieoff risk is affected by climate warming. We find that smaller-bodied passerines are subject to higher rates of mass-specific EWL than larger-bodied counterparts and thus encounter potentially lethal conditions much more frequently, over shorter daily intervals, and over larger geographic areas. Warming by 4°C greatly expands the extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydration risk, and introduces new threats for larger passerine birds, particularly those with limited geographic ranges. Our models reveal that increasing air temperatures and heat wave occurrence will potentially have important impacts on the water balance, daily activity, and geographic distribution of arid-zone birds. Impacts may be exacerbated by chronic effects and interactions with other environmental changes. This work underscores the importance of acute risks of high temperatures, particularly for small-bodied species, and suggests conservation of thermal refugia and water sources.avian ecology | physiological ecology | climate change | heat waves | water balance E xtreme weather events are increasingly seen as an important factor in ecology and conservation, with consequential effects on individuals, populations, communities, and ecosystems (1-3). Recent data indicate an increase in the incidence of heat waves and extreme high temperatures (4, 5). Despite difficulties in quantifying trends in mass mortality events, heat waves are known to have caused a number of large-scale die-offs among birds, pteropodid bats, and other taxa in recent years (6, 7). Moreover, current (8) and projected (9) increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves are likely to make these mortality events more common as the century progresses (10).Birds may be particularly susceptible to heat waves given their typically diurnal activity periods, small size, and high mass-specific rates of metabolism and water loss. Small birds also have a very limited capacity to store vital resources such as water, and consequently must balance their water budgets over time scales of minutes to hours during hot weather (10). Constraints on water availability and heat stress are known to produce changes in behavior, reproductive success, occupancy, and mortality in birds (11). Heat-related mortali...

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“…Evidence from arid and semiarid ecosystems indicates that shifts in avian abundance associated with heat waves and drought are already occurring (1,26,27).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration

Albright

Mutiibwa

Gerson

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

189

212

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Despite these findings, all else being equal, populations in places undergoing larger climatic changes are more likely to be negatively affected [23,45]. Physiology, behavior and morphology of individuals are expected to be adversely affected by reductions in climatic suitability, ultimately interfering on population dynamics [23,46]. Although exposure represents only one distal component that affect species vulnerability, it constitutes a first-order assessment to identify where species are more potentially vulnerable to climate change, particularly when data on species sensitivity and adaptive capacity are scarce [47].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

et al. 2016

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Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

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“…America (Barrows, 2006;Zylstra et al, 2013;Flesch, 2014;Lovich et al, 2014;Cruz-McDonnell & Wolf, 2015), and have broad implications for conservation and management in aridlands worldwide.…”

Section: Precipitation (P)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

Flesch

Rosen

Holm

2017

Global Change Biology

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Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (T ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.

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Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Cited by 86 publications

References 116 publications

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Long‐term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

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