The standard of living has significantly risen along with ongoing economic progress, but CO2 emissions have also been rising. The reduction in CO2 resulting from the daily activities of residents has become a crucial priority for every province. A relevant study on the carbon emissions of Hebei Province residents was conducted for this publication, aiming to provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of Hebei Province. The first part of the article calculates the carbon emissions of Hebei Province people from 2005 to 2020 using the emission factor method and the Consumer Lifestyle Approach (CLA). Secondly, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition approach is used to assess the components that influence both direct and indirect carbon emissions. Finally, the scenario analysis approach is employed in conjunction with the LEAP model to establish baseline, low-carbon, and ultra-low-carbon scenarios to predict the trend of residents’ carbon emissions in Hebei Province from 2021 to 2040. The results show that the total carbon emissions of residents in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2020 rose, from 77.45 million tons to 153.35 million tons. Income level, energy consumption intensity, and population scale are factors that contribute to the increase in direct carbon emissions, while consumption tendency factors have a mitigating effect on direct carbon emissions. Economic level, consumption structure, and population scale factors are factors that contribute to the increase in indirect carbon emissions, while energy consumption intensity and energy structure factors have a mitigating effect on indirect carbon emissions. The prediction results show that under the baseline scenario, the cumulative residents’ carbon emissions in Hebei Province will not reach a zenith from 2021 to 2040. However, under the low-carbon situation, the carbon emissions of residents in Hebei Province will peak in 2029, with a peak of 174.69 million tons, whereas under the ultra-low-carbon scenario, it will peak in 2028, with a peak of 173.27 million tons.
