Rationalizable Suicides: Evidence from Changes in Inmates’ Expected Length of Sentence

Abstract

Is there a rational component in the decision to commit suicide? Economists have been trying to shed light on this question by studying whether suicide rates are related to contemporaneous conditions. This paper goes one step further: we test whether suicides are linked to forward-looking behavior. In Italy, collective sentence reductions (pardons) often lead to massive releases of prisoners. More importantly, they are usually preceded by prolonged parliamentary activity (legislative proposals, discussion, voting, etc.) that inmates seem to follow closely. We use the legislative proposals for collective pardons to measure changes in the inmates' expectations about the length of their sentences, and find that suicide rates tend to be significantly lower when pardons are proposed in congress. This suggests that, amongst inmates in Italian prisons, the average decision to commit suicide responds to changes in current expectations about future conditions. At least partially, therefore, the decision seems rationalizable.

A Path Out: Prescription Drug Abuse, Treatment, and Suicide

“…Lastly, the model does not incorporate uncertainty about whether the drug supply shock caused by PDMPs will be reversed in the future. Both theoretical and empirical work have argued that uncertainty about the future can shape suicide decisions (Campaniello et al, 2017). In the Online Appendix, we present a version of the model that incorporates the possibility of a reversal of the drug supply shock.…”

“…Both theoretical and empirical work have argued that uncertainty about the future can shape suicide decisions (Campaniello et al, 2017). In our context, beliefs about future improvements in the value of using a drug may mitigate the impact of short-run drug supply shocks and prevent suicides.…”

New(spaper) evidence of a reduction in suicide mentions during the 19th century US gold rush

“…There are, of course, studies looking at mental health outcomes (Bradford & Lastrapes, 2014;Charles & DeCicca, 2008;Currie & Tekin, 2015;McInerney & Mellor, 2012). While mental health (care) is a crucial channel, suicidal individuals partially base their decision on rationally explainable thought processes, as Hamermesh and Soss (1974) suggested and empirically confirmed by Campaniello et al (2017). This implies that it is helpful to look at the whole picture between economic changes and suicides in addition to exploring potential channels.…”

Monthly Suicide Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan

“…This paper contributes to the literature that studies how social and economic circumstances affect suicide rates by documenting how they are evolving during a pandemic (Becker and Woesmann, 2018;Campaniello et al, 2017;Cutler et al, 2001;Daly et al, 2013;Lenhart, 2019;Ludwig et al, 2009;Stevenson and Wolfers, 2006;Christian et al, 2019;Dow et al, 2020).…”