Re-Examining of Moffitt’s Theory of Delinquency through Agent Based Modeling

Abstract

Moffitt’s theory of delinquency suggests that at-risk youths can be divided into two groups, the adolescence- limited group and the life-course-persistent group, predetermined at a young age, and social interactions between these two groups become important during the adolescent years. We built an agent-based model based on the microscopic interactions Moffitt described: (i) a maturity gap that dictates (ii) the cost and reward of antisocial behavior, and (iii) agents imitating the antisocial behaviors of others more successful than themselves, to find indeed the two groups emerging in our simulations. Moreover, through an intervention simulation where we moved selected agents from one social network to another, we also found that the social network plays an important role in shaping the life course outcome.

Applications of agent-based modeling in trauma research.

“…Specifically, an agent-based model by Cornelius and colleagues examined the spread of criminality through social networks at different stages of the life course and the influence of resources targeted to different life stages on reducing that criminality and promoting upward mobility in larger segments of the population (Cornelius et al, 2017). Relatedly, an agent-based model by Leaw and colleagues (2015), which specified simple behavioral rules governing decisions about antisocial behavior as well as varying peer influences at different stages of childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood, illustrated the emergence of two population subsets characterized by adolescence-limited vs. life-course-persistent delinquency, which is consistent with Moffitt’s taxonomy of antisocial behavior (Moffitt, 1993). This latter example also demonstrates the utility of ABM to provide insight into accepted theories and taxonomies in psychology, as discussed further below.…”

Youth Violence and Interventions: Insights from a Complex Agent Network Model

“…However, unlike in our recent paper 67 where the cost and bene¯t of delinquency change over a period of about 15 years, in this paper our simulations are over two years at most, before the social`coming of age' t p . Hence, we can neglect the cost and bene¯t, and focus on whether an individual choose to imitate a more delinquent neighbor, or a less delinquent neighbor.…”

“…The most relevant publication we can¯nd is Mo±tt's dual taxonomy theory, 16 on which we recently developed a model. 67 In this theory, Mo±tt observes that young children are physically and psychologically immature, and have no desire to act like adults. Therefore, they gain no real bene¯ts by going against social norms to do adult things.…”

Empirical Determination of Transitory and Persistent Delinquency in Chilean Youth: Validation of the Criminal Engagement Severity Scale “EGED”

“…As adolescence ends, the antisocial behaviors decrease, because the maturity gap is reduced and the contra-normative behavior is not needed to reaffirm adulthood. In addition, antisocial behavior becomes a hazard to reaching future goals and its rewards turn into costs, ending in its desistance [12]. The percentage of adolescencelimited offenders reported by Moore et al [14] in Oceania and Europe is between 10 and 26%, and in the United States, studies vary from 4.6 to 11.6%.…”

“…The first is a small, pathological population with observable antisocial tendencies in very early childhood that persist throughout most of the life cycle. This group is identified as persistent delinquency (PD), and lifelong criminal behavior may be the result of the interaction of neurological, genetic, and environmental risk factors [12,13] that translate into a series of generalized and prolonged behavioral problems. The percentage of adolescent offenders in Moffitt's original study [9] was 5% of the sample; in Oceania and Europe it has been estimated that it ranges from 5 to 10%, and in the United States, studies vary from 0.5 to 7.4% [14].…”