(Re)Focussing on behavioural change: an examination of the utility of hidden Markov modelling

Abstract

Purpose -Behavioural change practice has focussed attention on understanding behaviour; failing to apply dynamic approaches that capture the underlying determinants of behavioural change. Following recommendations to direct analytical focus towards understanding both the causal factors of behaviour and behavioural change to enhance intervention practice, this paper applied a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach to understand why people transition from one state to another (e.g. reporting changes from wasting food to not wasting food or vice versa).Design/methodology/approach -Data was drawn from a 2017 food waste program 1 that aimed to reduce waste of fruit and vegetables by increasing self-efficacy through a 2-week pilot, featuring recipes and in-store cooking demonstrations. A repeated measure longitudinal research design was used. 314 households completed a phone survey prior to the two-week pilot and 244 completed the survey in the weeks following the intervention (77% retention in the evaluation study).Findings -Two behavioural states were identified, namely fruit and vegetable (FV) wasters and non FV-wasters. Age was identified as a causal factor for FV food wasting prior to the campaign (45-54 years were most likely to waste FV). Following the intervention, a total of 43.8% transitioned away from FV wasters to non-wasters, and attitudes and self-efficacy were indicated as potential causal factors of this change in FV waste behaviour.Originality/value -Through this application, it is demonstrated how HMM can identify behavioural states, rates of behaviour change and importantly how HMM can identify both causal determinants of behaviour and behavioural change. Implications, limitations and future research directions are outlined.

Consumer perspectives on household food waste reduction campaigns

“…The top 20 common food items that consumers can waste less were identified. Our findings suggest recipes requiring existing fruit and vegetables and other complementary food items could minimise key barriers (lack of cooking skills) and maximise key motivation (saving money); thereby assisting leftover-reuse behaviour and resulting in reduced food waste (David, Rundle-Thiele, & Pallant, 2019)…”

Improving theory use in social marketing: the TITE four-step theory application process

“…Theory provides a framework within which to identify appropriate intervention targets (i.e. antecedents, mediators and moderators of behaviour change) and select component behaviour change techniques (BCTs) (Michie and Prestwich, 2010; Michie et al , 2008; Michie et al , 2018; David et al , 2019; David and Rundle-Thiele, 2019; Willmott et al , 2019a); supports the visualisation of relationships between the target behaviours, intervention targets or mechanisms of action (MOAs) and BCTs in the form of logic models (Bartholomew and Mullen, 2011; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2018; Hardeman et al , 2005); facilitates theoretically derived measurement, evaluation and monitoring permitting a fine-grained understanding of how an intervention elicits or not the desired effects (Rothman, 2009; Michie and Abraham, 2004; Willmott et al , 2019a; Bartholomew and Mullen, 2011); informs the refinement of theoretically derived intervention activities (Rothman, 2004; Rothman, 2009; Michie and Abraham, 2004); supports tailoring to individuals or different sub-groups (segments) of the target population (Willmott et al , 2019a; Noar et al , 2007); and enables the accumulation of evidence within structured frameworks (Bartholomew and Mullen, 2011). In short, theory can give rise to more accurate and complete descriptions of interventions (and their associated outcomes) when rigorously applied across the planning, design, implementation, evaluation and monitoring stages (Willmott and Rundle-Thiele, 2021).…”