Re-imagining the future: city-region foresight and visioning in an era of fragmented governance

Dixon, Tim; Karuri‐Sebina, Geci; Ravetz, Joe; Tewdwr‐Jones, Mark

doi:10.1080/00343404.2022.2076825

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Considering the major complexities and externalities associated with urban planning, the need to plan for longer horizons and the fragmented essence of urban governance, a critical reflection on the traditional style of urban planning is essential; one possible way to address these challenges is to deploy "city foresight" methods (Dixon et al, 2022).…”

Section: Foresight and Urban Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The purpose of this study is to present a case study on how established methods of futures/ foresight studies can be used in practice as city foresight (Dixon et al, 2022). Isfahan faces many uncertainties about its futures.…”

Section: The Research Aims and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Traditional urban planning, though, is burdened with short-sightedness, neglect of the future, lack of stakeholder engagement and overreliance on the “project-then-plan” approach (Ratcliffe and Krawczyk, 2011; Myers and Kitsuse, 2000). Considering the major complexities and externalities associated with urban planning, the need to plan for longer horizons and the fragmented essence of urban governance, a critical reflection on the traditional style of urban planning is essential; one possible way to address these challenges is to deploy “city foresight” methods (Dixon et al , 2022). Foresight practices can generally be applied in four ways to urban futures (Mäntysalo et al , 2022; Goodspeed, 2020a, Chakraborty and McMillan, 2015): projecting probable urban futures mainly through quantitative/simulation-based methods; exploring alternative urban futures primarily achieved by scenario-building; outlining preferable urban futures generally created by vision-crafting methods; and designing actionable steps to materialize urban visions by drawing on performative techniques such as backcasting and roadmapping (Dixon et al , 2014).…”

Section: Foresight and Urban Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study can contribute both to theoretical considerations and practical know-how of city foresight in the Global South. Furthermore, this “Global South” case study is a small step to addressing the geopolitical divide in the relevance and application of city foresight (Dixon et al , 2022). The remainder of this paper is structured as follows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040

Zackery

Demneh

Nejad

2023

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Purpose Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South. Design/methodology/approach This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed. Findings Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South. Originality/value The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

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Section: Foresight and Urban Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Research Aims and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Foresight and Urban Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040

Zackery

Demneh

Nejad

2023

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“…This definition makes a distinction between futures thinking and planning, which are often treated as if they are the same. In addition, although the LTIBs' horizons are national, there is an increasing focus on futures thinking at the regional, city and local level (Dixon et al, 2022;Mäntysalo et al, 2022). 1 The above definition resonates with the view of the Centre for Strategic Futures in Singapore, a country which has a history of systematic, applied futures thinking:…”

Section: The Purpose Of Futures Thinkingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Insights Briefings: a futures perspective

Menzies¹

2022

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The Public Service Act 2020 requires departmental chief executives to give a long-term insights briefing (LTIB) to the appropriate minister at least once every three years. In an increasingly uncertain world, there are several ways to explore the future that will unfold over the next decades. At this stage of their development, questions can be asked as to how well the current suite of 19 LTIBs are likely to perform as instruments to help identify implications of probable, possible and preferred futures so that policy responses can be made more anticipatory, adaptable and robust. This article provides a futures-thinking context for considering LTIBs and posits a framework for evaluating (and potentially improving) the full set of LTIB documents once they are all published.

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Bridging the gap: Exploring urban resilience and sustainability in Finnish regional development

Hewidy,

Eräranta

2024

Sustainable Development

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This study investigates the dynamics of urban resilience (UR) and sustainability (US) in Finnish regional planning cultures, focusing on the Helsinki‐Uusimaa and Southwest Finland regions. It highlights the intertwined nature of UR and US, emphasizing the need for clearer distinctions to enhance planning effectiveness. Through comparative case studies, this research explores the role of institutional planning culture in shaping procedural resilience amidst complex socio‐environmental changes. It reveals resource constraints as critical challenges, influencing decision‐making and collaboration across governance levels. Additionally, it underscores the importance of long‐term commitment and integrated regional visions for fostering sustainable development beyond electoral cycles. The paper advocates for an integrated approach to regional development, emphasizing the significance of addressing power dynamics and economic resilience alongside environmental considerations. Overall, it calls for a nuanced understanding of resilience‐sustainability interlinkages to craft more effective and adaptive planning strategies.

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Re-imagining the future: city-region foresight and visioning in an era of fragmented governance

Cited by 14 publications

References 38 publications

Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040

Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040

Long-term Insights Briefings: a futures perspective

Bridging the gap: Exploring urban resilience and sustainability in Finnish regional development

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