Re-measuring gentrification

Abstract

We develop an expectations-based measure of gentrification. Property values today incorporate market participants’ expectations of the neighbourhood’s future. We contrast this with present-oriented variables like demographics. To operationalise the signal implicit in property values, we contrast the percentile rank of a neighbourhood’s average house price to that of its average income, relative to its metropolitan area. We take as our signal of gentrification the rise of a neighbourhood’s house value percentile above its income percentile. We show that a gap between the house value and income percentiles predicts future income growth. We further validate our metric against existing approaches to identify gentrification, finding that it aligns meaningfully with qualitative analyses built on local insight. Compared to existing quantitative approaches, we obtain similar results but usually observe them in earlier years and with more parsimonious data. Our approach has several advantages: conceptual simplicity, communicative flexibility with graphical and map forms and availability for small geographies on an annual basis with minimal lag.

Neighborhoods in the 21st century: What do we know, and what do we still have to learn?

“…Although the college share rose throughout cities, the increase was most rapid in city centers, driven by young college graduates. Bunten et al (2023) developed a new measure of gentrification based on the gap between income and house price percentiles, drawing on the theory that prices will reflect expectations about future neighborhood demographic change before that change has happened (or gotten too far underway).…”

Closing the Rent Index Gap – A Quantitative Approach to Rental‐Sector Gentrification

“…While some studies identify gentrification areas simply based on prior local knowledge (Freeman & Braconi 2004), others do not operationalize the underlying changes to the built environment (Atkinson 2000;Walks & Maaranen 2008;Hedin et al 2012). Another set of studies, employs both real estate and socio-economic indicators but does not distinguish between gentrification's drivers and outcomes (Holm & Schulz 2016;Reades et al 2019;Kadi et al 2022b;Bunten et al 2023). Although these studies allow for valuable insights into the geography of neighbourhood transformation, they presuppose their socio-spatial implications.…”

“…2022b; Bunten et al . 2023). Although these studies allow for valuable insights into the geography of neighbourhood transformation, they presuppose their socio‐spatial implications.…”

Towards a Praxis of Manifesting Spatial Imaginaries

“…Thus, as Bloch and Meyer (2023) argue "it is a process that functions through people's embodied placemaking capacities, only some of which manifest in physical mobility (2)." Indeed, within disciplinary traditions across urban studies, the salient focus of researchers has been on residential mobility (e.g., Brown-Saracino, 2017;bunten et al, 2023;Freeman, 2005;Hwang, 2015;Lee and Perkins, 2023). Central to these ideas typically involves a form of dislocation-a separation of the body from physical space.…”