Re-Opening Dallas: A Short-Term Evaluation of COVID-19 Regulations and Crime

Abstract

We investigated the relationship between COVID-19 stay-at-home regulations and property and violent crime indexes in Dallas, TX during the first 6 months of 2020. We tested for changes in property and violent crime trends using four key “intervention” dates: the stay-at-home order issued by Judge Clay Jenkins (March 24), the start of Governor Abbott’s phase one of re-opening (May 1), a second phase of more widespread re-openings (May 18), and a third phase of increased capacity limits for businesses (June 3). Our analyses point to two main findings: (1) the time between the initial stay-at-home policy and the phase one re-opening was associated with an increase in the trend of both violent and property crime (although at lower levels than pre-pandemic); and (2) the third phase of re-opening the City of Dallas was associated with higher daily counts of property and violent crime. Our findings suggest that policy makers need to consider policies not only related to police enforcement but also allocation of other social services, particularly when such a sudden policy (e.g., stay-at-home order) is implemented.

COVID-19’s Impact on Crime and Delinquency

“…Riddell et al (2021) examined changes in property and violent crime offenses in Dallas, TX across the first 6 months of 2020, composing four separate COVID-19-related phases of government response: (1) stay-at-home order, (2) phase I re-opening allowing 25% capacity for restaurants, movie theaters, museums, libraries, non-essential retail, and shopping malls, (3) phase II re-opening of gyms office workplaces and manufacturing facilities to 25% capacity, and (4) phase III re-opening of businesses to 50% capacity. Employing both Poisson regression leveraging daily crime counts and trend analysis using the start dates of each of the four phases of re-opening, Riddell et al (2021) found initial stay-at-home orders led to a 6.8% decrease in daily violent crime counts and a 7% to 10% decrease in property crime yet found an increasing trend for both violent and property crime between the initial stay-at-home order and the phase I re-opening, and that phase III (reopen all businesses to 50% capacity) was associated with higher daily counts of both violent and property crime (18.5% increase in violent crimes and 12%-15% increase in property crimes). This study advances our knowledge surrounding the pandemic and associated governmental restrictions' influence on different crime types, but, more importantly, is one of the first to examine the influence of both restrictions and the easing of such restrictions on crime.…”