Reaching the human scale: A spatial and temporal downscaling approach to the archaeological implications of paleoclimate data

High-resolution (sub-decadal) pollen analysis of varved sediments from Lake Montcortès (southern Pyrenean flank): A fine-tuned record of landscape dynamics and human impact during the last 500 years

“…For instance, the lack of enough spatial and temporal resolution of the different data sources sometimes does not permit to obtain a complete and accurate image of the past (Jones et al, 2009;Rull et al, 2014;Sadori et al, 2015;Contreas et al, 2018). Archaeology, palaeoclimatology and palaeoenvironmental science often strive to achieve regional and long-term relevance, resulting in a coarse resolution of multi-decadal to multi-millennial scales (Rull et al, 2014;Contreras et al, 2018). In contrast, ecological, and historical data provide more constrained spatial and temporal resolutions (sub-decadal/annual/seasonal) (Rull et al, 2014;Contreras et al, 2018).…”

“…Archaeology, palaeoclimatology and palaeoenvironmental science often strive to achieve regional and long-term relevance, resulting in a coarse resolution of multi-decadal to multi-millennial scales (Rull et al, 2014;Contreras et al, 2018). In contrast, ecological, and historical data provide more constrained spatial and temporal resolutions (sub-decadal/annual/seasonal) (Rull et al, 2014;Contreras et al, 2018). In palaeoecology, a solution for this issue is to work with varved sediments that allow annual to seasonal time-resolutions or with sediment records with very high sediment accumulation rates (Veski et al, 2005;Ojala et al, 2012;Rull 2014).…”

Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling

“…Furthermore, since spatial and temporal domains between social and environmental systems tend not to overlap, they need to be coherently matched to allow for coupled modeling (Gibson et al, 2000). This matching often requires advancements in upscaling and downscaling methods of connected subsystems (Contreras et al, 2018;Poggio et al, 2018). Finally, macroscopic patterns and phenomena observed at higher scales in complex SES are an emergent result of microscopic behavior and interactions at lower scales (Epstein and Axtell, 1996;Levin et al, 2013).…”

Regional paleoclimates and local consequences: Integrating GIS analysis of diachronic settlement patterns and process-based agroecosystem modeling of potential agricultural productivity in Provence (France)

“…These contrasts make the development of methodologies able to capture fine-grained spatial and temporal variability vital for examining long-term human-environment interaction in the region. In addition, Provence has a richly documented archaeological record, much of which is available in digital form through Patriarche , as well as relatively high-resolution 20 th -century climate data that can be used as the basis for downscaling paleoclimate reconstructions [11]. By focusing on an area that encompasses topographic diversity, abundant evidence of pre- and proto-historic settlement, and historically desirable and productive agricultural land, this case study addresses the consequences of Holocene climate change in the western Mediterranean at scales relevant to human inhabitants while taking into account the potential spatial diversity in the effects of climate change.…”

“…Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt the agro-ecosystem model LPJmL (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena-managed-land model, [9]) to model potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices (see [10]) and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data (see [11]), we estimate reasonable potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data derived from Patriarche (the French national archaeological atlas, a continuously updated database that integrates excavation and survey data from diverse sources: http://www.culturecommunication.gouv.fr/Politiques-ministerielles/Archeologie/Etude-recherche/Carte-archeologique-nationale),which we use to examine the changing relationship over time between potential agricultural productivity and settlement location.…”