Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)

Abstract

Lustick and Tetlock (2021) argue for the use of theory-guided simulation for aiding geopolitical planning and decision-making. This is a very welcome contribution, as in our experience, geopolitical analyses are often qualitative in nature and prone to group think. The complexities of geopolitical issues, however, really call for the use of theory-guided simulations. These issues are too complex for mental simulation (Atkins et al., 2002;Sterman, 1989Sterman, , 1994. Dynamic simulations, if properly grounded in appropriate theories and wellmotivated assumptions, can derive the possible dynamics from interacting nonlinear processes, and thus aid human reasoning about system behavior (Sterman, 2002). Moreover, since geopolitical issues are subject to uncertainty, scarce data, and conflicting information, using an ensemble modeling approach is appropriate. An ensemble