2020
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3764717
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Reading between the Lines: Using Text Analysis to Estimate the Loss Function of the ECB

Abstract: We apply textual analysis to extract the tone (sentiment) from the introductory statements to the ECB's press conferences regarding economic outlook. By combining this information with Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, we are able to directly estimate the Governing Council's loss function. Our analysis suggests that prior to the new monetary policy strategy announced in July 2021, the de facto inflation aim of the ECB may have been considerably below 2%. We also find evidence that the loss functi… Show more

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