Reading From the Crystal Ball: The Laws of Moore and Kurzweil Applied to Mass Spectrometry in Food Analysis

Abstract

Predictions about the future knowledge of the "complete" food metabolome may be assayed based on the laws of Moore and Kurzweil, who foresee a technological development on exponential behavior. The application of these laws allows us to extrapolate and predict roughly when each single metabolite in foods could be (1) known, (2) detectable, and (3) identifiable. To avoid huge additional uncertainties, we restrict the range of metabolites to those in unprocessed foods. From current metabolite databases and their coverage over time, the conservative number of all considered food metabolites can be estimated to be 500,000, predicting them being known by around 2025. Assuming these laws and extrapolating the current developments in chromatography and mass spectrometry technology, the year 2032 can be estimated, when single molecule detection will be possible in "routine" mass spectrometry. A possible forecast for the identification of all food metabolites, however, is much more difficult and estimated at the earliest in 2041 as the year when this may be achieved. However, the real prediction uncertainty is extreme and is discussed in the essay presented here.

Rate of Advancement of Detection Limits in Mass Spectrometry: Is there a Moore’s Law of Mass Spec?

“…One study has recently estimated increases in LoD would mean that single molecule detection could be possible in "routine" mass spectrometry in 2032. 5) It should perhaps be noted that Moore's law is not actually a law, but rather an observation/prediction made many years ago. It has since become a self-ful lling prophesy and a key target for a large, motivated, and well-funded industry.…”

“…Likewise it would be interesting to ascertain if there is a “law” of MS and thus estimate if the technology is likely to continuously deliver better detection limits and when, if ever, we might reach single molecule detection. 5 ) In this paper we draw on historical data from the literature to assess how MS LoDs have changed over time and investigate the question—is there a Moore’s law of Mass Spectrometry?…”

Goals in Nutrition Science 2020-2025

“…In this regard, comprehensive food analysis will target the “ foodome ,” which recently has been defined as the “collection of all compounds present at a given time in an investigated food sample and/or in a biological system interacting with the investigated food” ( 282 ). Although the foodome still mainly consists of “dark matter,” there are perspectives that different aspects of it may be uncovered in the next two decades if not before ( 283 ).…”

Discrimination of Geographical Origin of Agricultural Products From Small-Scale Districts by Widely Targeted Metabolomics With a Case Study on Pinggu Peach

“…Based on multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) and multiple ion monitoring, the aforementioned analysis is a sensitive and accurate method for simultaneously quantifying hundreds of known metabolites and nearly 1000 known and unknown metabolites ( 26 ). Meanwhile, Rychlik et al estimated that the conservative number of all considered food metabolites could be 500,000; it is expected that the analysis of food metabolites may play an important role in food field ( 27 ). In recent years, widely targeted metabolomics analysis has been successfully applied to analyze the metabolic response, metabolic alterations, and metabolite accumulation in plants ( 28 – 30 ).…”