Real-Time Crash Prediction Model for Application to Crash Prevention in Freeway Traffic

Lee, Chris; Hellinga, Bruce; Saccomanno, Frank

doi:10.3141/1840-08

Cited by 242 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Since the values of the log-likelihood ratio χ 2 were found to be low with p-values close to 1 in all cases, the model fit was adequately high at a 95% confidence level (α = 0.05). This modified model displayed slightly better performance than the model we developed in the previous study (6). As expected, high-level crash precursors generally contribute to high crash frequency.…”

Section: Crash Prediction Modelmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…In our previous studies (5,6), the following three crash precursor variables were identified: (1) the coefficient of variation of speed (which is equal to the standard deviation of speed divided by the average speed) upstream of a specific location (CVS), (2) average density (D), and (3) average speed difference between the upstream and downstream of a specific location (Q). The details of model structure, the calculation of precursors including the determination of observation time slice duration (time offset), the categorization of precursor variables, and the calibration of parameters using real traffic data are discussed in Lee et al (5,6). …”

Section: Crash Prediction Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing Safety Benefits of Variable Speed Limits

Lee

Hellinga

Saccomanno

2004

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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A method is suggested for evaluating the effectiveness of variable speed limits in reducing freeway crash potential. The real-time crash prediction model that was developed in earlier studies was used to estimate crash potential for different control strategies of variable speed limits. To mimic realistic responses of drivers to changes in speed limits, a microscopic traffic simulation model was used. The simulation results indicate that total crash potential over the entire freeway segment could be significantly reduced under variable speed limit control with a minimal increase in travel time compared to the fixed speed limit. The methodology for assessing safety benefits of variable speed limits is illustrated, and findings from the experiment that used a simple freeway segment are presented.

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Section: Crash Prediction Modelmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Crash Prediction Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Safety Benefits of Variable Speed Limits

Lee

Hellinga

Saccomanno

2004

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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“…) was modified in 2003 [15], and then in 2004 [16] by the author and implemented in the simulation of a smaller transport network, 2.5 km long, which contains four inductive loops, three variable message signs and three traffic lanes. As a conclusion of the said simulation, the obtained results show that the average crash potential is reduced by approximately 25% by using the system of variable traffic signs and the crash prevention model.…”

Section: Overview Of Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time traffic safety management model on motorways

Huzjan¹,

Mandžuka

Kos

2017

Teh. vjesn.

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Original scientific paper The methodology that allows predicting the occurrence of traffic accidents on the motorway was studied and defined in this paper. On the basis of this assessment the implementation of active measures for reducing the probability of their actual occurrence is included. The intensity of traffic does not give a simple correlation with the number and the type of accidents, that relationship is more complex. Previous studies have been applied to motorways with six and more traffic lanes, and no studies have been carried out for four-lane motorways (with the driving and overtaking lane on one carriageway). This paper presents a new model for such motorways, the model is based on measuring values of parameters of traffic flow and external factors that affect the traffic flow. The degree of crash potential was brought to correlation with the existing statistical data on traffic accidents on the test section and traffic flow data. This model is important for experts to produce algorithms that manage variable message signs on highways. Keywords: crash potential factor; four-lane motorways; traffic flow; traffic safety management model; variable message signs Model stvarno-vremenskog upravljanja sigurnošću prometa na autocestamaIzvorni znanstveni članka U radu je istražena i definirana metodologija koja omogućuje predviđanje nastanka prometnih nesreća na autocesti. Na osnovu te procjene uključuje se provedba aktivnih mjera za smanjenje vjerojatnosti njihova stvarnog nastanka. Sam intenzitet prometa ne daje jednostavnu korelacijsku vezu s brojem i vrstom prometnih nesreća već je taj odnos mnogo složeniji. Dosadašnja istraživanja primjenjivana su za autoceste sa šest i više prometnih traka, odnosno nema istraživanja napravljenih za četverotračne autoceste. U radu je prikazan novi model za takve autoceste, a baziran je na mjerenju vrijednosti parametara prometnog toka te vanjskih čimbenika koji utječu na odvijanje prometnog toka. Stupanj opasnosti od nastanka nesreće doveden je u korelaciju s postojećim statističkim podacima o prometnim nesrećama na testnoj dionici i podataka o prometnom toku. Ovaj model značajan je za eksperte koji izrađuju algoritme koji upravljaju promjenjivim prometnim znakovima na autocestama.Ključne riječi: četverotračne autoceste; faktor opasnosti nastanka prometne nezgode; model upravljanja sigurnošću prometa; prometni tok; promjenljiva svjetlosna signalizacija

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“…The United States and Canada began to carry out researches on the traffic accident detection algorithms and the traffic flow harbinger characteristics before the traffic accident from 1990s [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Among them, Chris adopted the speed differences between upstream and downstream, and the variances of the cross-section speed as the characterization factors of the traffic flow real-time risk discrimination [9], the results of which was referenced by Kansas state highway agency of USA in 2006.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Prediction Method of Freeway Operation Situation Based on Short-Term Traffic Flow Multi-Parameters Regression

2016

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Abstract. In order to realize the short-term prediction of traffic flow operation security situation, so as to enhance the operation safety of freeway, based on the traffic flow detection data and traffic accident data of Beijing section in Jing-ha freeway, the security situation prediction model based on short-term multi-parameters was established in the paper. Firstly, we extracted all the traffic flow data of microwave coils and videos, as well as the traffic accidents after updating the electromechanical system of Beijing section in Jing-ha freeway, so as to establish the risk prediction database, and developed the pre-analysis software of basic data; secondly, the traffic flow data of 30 minutes prior to the time of the accident were divided into six slices at 5-minute level, and the volume, speed, occupancy as well as their statistical parameters were selected as the chosen parameters of the model; next, singleparameter Logistic regression analysis was carried out in each time slice respectively; finally, based on the results of the correlation analysis of parameters and the single-parameter modeling significance, the multi-parameters Logistic regression model was established in each time slice respectively, thus obtaining the short-term prediction model of the traffic flow operation security situation. The results indicate that, the modeling fitting effect of slice 1 is the best, that is the change of the traffic flow parameters and their statistics in 5 minutes prior to the time of the accident can effectively predict the possibility of the accident, in which the average speed has a significant impact on the risk of the accident.

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Real-Time Crash Prediction Model for Application to Crash Prevention in Freeway Traffic

Cited by 242 publications

References 5 publications

Assessing Safety Benefits of Variable Speed Limits

Assessing Safety Benefits of Variable Speed Limits

Real-time traffic safety management model on motorways

Research on Prediction Method of Freeway Operation Situation Based on Short-Term Traffic Flow Multi-Parameters Regression

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