Real Time Data

Abstract

Interpretation of exchange rate volatility in the light of economic fundamentals comprises an issue of interest for policymakers when it comes to implementing the monetary policy. Understanding the impact of economic news on the Lek exchange rate against two main hard currencies, Euro and US dollar, would serve to better orient the monetary policy and forex market agents positioning in time. Exchange rates volatility on economic news in short-term is an often discussed phenomenon in the economic literature, but through this material we tend to measure these effects in the Albanian foreign currency market and contribute in the literature interpreting foreign currency markets volatility in developing economies. Very often, domestic foreign exchange movements are attributed to developments in large international markets. In the case of Albanian Lek volatility analysis, we tend to find answers regarding the importance of economic news coming from the two main economies in focus, Eurozone and the US. Furthermore, we investigate the importance of the economic information flow in Albania in determining the Lek exchange rate against Euro and US dollar. For a period in focus from January 2007 until July 2012, we try to understand if the exchange rate volatility has been a result of economic fundamentals or financial markets stress related economic news.