Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan

Cheng, Yu-Chieh; Lee, Fang-Jing; Hsu, Ya-Ting; Slud, Eric V.; Hsiung, Chao A.; Chen, Chunhong; Liao, Ching‐Len; Wen, Tzai‐Hung; Chang, C. C.; Chang, Jui-Hun; Wu, Hsiao-Yu; Chang, Te-Pin; Lin, Pin‐Yao; Ho, Hui-Pin; Hung, Wen-Feng; Chou, Jen–Wei; Tsou, Hsiao‐Hui

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008434

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…In this study, we found large differences in absolute FI and GI values as well as trends. When analyzing trap indices and weather records, we noted that the temperatures of the entire study period were in the suitable range for short gonotrophic cycles and high biting rates in mosquito populations ( 36 , 37 ). Furthermore, weeks 24, 29, 33, and 34 had total rainfall above 200 mm ( Figure 2C ), which increased FI but caused minimal changes in GI.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Fan-Traps and Gravitraps for Aedes Mosquito Surveillance in Taiwan

Pan

Cheng

Liu

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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A key component of integrated vector management strategies is the efficient implementation of mosquito traps for surveillance and control. Numerous trap types have been created with distinct designs and capture mechanisms, but identification of the most effective trap type is critical for effective implementation. For dengue vector surveillance, previous studies have demonstrated that active traps utilizing CO2 attractant are more effective than passive traps for capturing Aedes mosquitoes. However, maintaining CO2 supply in traps is so labor intensive as to be likely unfeasible in crowded residential areas, and it is unclear how much more effective active traps lacking attractants are than purely passive traps. In this study, we analyzed Aedes capture data collected in 2019 from six urban areas in Kaohsiung City to compare Aedes mosquito catch rates between (passive) gravitraps and (active) fan-traps. The average gravitrap index (GI) and fan-trap index (FI) values were 0.68 and 3.39 respectively at peak catch times from June to August 2019, with consistently higher FI values calculated in all areas studied. We compared trap indices to reported cases of dengue fever and correlated them with weekly fluctuations in temperature and rainfall. We found that FI trends aligned more closely with case numbers and rainfall than GI values, supporting the use of fan-traps for Aedes mosquito surveillance and control as part of broader vector management strategies. Furthermore, combining fan-trap catch data with rapid testing for dengue infections may improve the early identification and prevention of future disease outbreaks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Fan-Traps and Gravitraps for Aedes Mosquito Surveillance in Taiwan

Pan

Cheng

Liu

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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“…We used the RMSE as a measure of the model’s predictive performance in the Alpha & Delta period, as in several previous studies [ 17 , 55 , 71 , 72 ]: where is the actual number of dependent variables at time t , is the forecast dependent variable value, and n is the sample size. Lower values reflect more accurate forecasting.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such forecasting is an essential part of public health policy, guiding the timely implementation of vector control operations and mitigating outbreak risks. It has been used successfully during pandemics/epidemics of influenza (H1N1-2009) [ 16 ], dengue fever [ 17 , 18 ], and Ebola [ 19 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

et al. 2023

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Background Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control. Methods To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). Results A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (–0.81 and –0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (–0.03), Israel (–0.12), Italy (–0.02), and France (–0.03); all p < 0.05. Conclusions The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in controlling the pandemic. These models are easily interpretable and can be embedded in a “real-time” schedule with weekly data updates. They can support timely decision making about policies to control dynamically changing epidemics.

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“…Various epidemiological transmissions of infectious diseases, such as diarrhea, typhoid, malaria, and dengue fever, can be approximated using spatial models by enhancing the effectiveness of treatments that will lead to improved results (Phanitchat et al, 2019). A study in Kaohsiung City, Southern Taiwan, looked at the association between climatic conditions and the dengue outbreak and discovered that humidity and bite rates were substantially connected with cases of dengue disease (Cheng et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental potential of Aedes Aegypti Mosquitoes for Dengue haemorrhagic fever in Pekanbaru, Indonesia

Giofandi,

Umar,

Triyatno

et al. 2023

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Dengue fever is frequently considered a common fever, and this misconception carries the highest risk of fatality. Dengue haemorrhagic fever is still one of Riau Province's unsolved diseases. This is one of the reasons why this study is necessary to identify prospective mosquito environmental zones with major significance for understanding epidemic transmission in the Pekanbaru City area. The bivariate statistical approach was employed in this research. The aim is to link environmental physical factors to data on the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Pekanbaru City. The area under the curve for the correlation between the environment and the distribution of dengue haemorrhagic fever was 0.76 for the rainfall parameter, with 0.68 for the area under the curve derived from the air humidity parameter. The establishment of six environmental indicators resulted in a weight of evidence value of 10,467 to -35,693 for the mosquito's environmental potential. Meanwhile, the most favourable potential zone, which encompasses 5,935 ha, accounts for 9.18% of the overall area. Areas with the highest risk of spreading Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were found around the city center, both residential and office areas. The risk of dengue haemorrhagic fever transmission in this zone is higher than in the other three zones. By taking earlier events into account, this knowledge can be one of the early preventions in understanding the environmental structure of the Aedes aegypti mosquito habitat.

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Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan

Cited by 10 publications

References 33 publications

Comparison of Fan-Traps and Gravitraps for Aedes Mosquito Surveillance in Taiwan

Comparison of Fan-Traps and Gravitraps for Aedes Mosquito Surveillance in Taiwan

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

Environmental potential of Aedes Aegypti Mosquitoes for Dengue haemorrhagic fever in Pekanbaru, Indonesia

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