Real-Time Prediction of Petrophysical Properties Using Machine Learning Based on Drilling Parameters

Abstract

The prediction of rock porosity and permeability is crucial for assessing reservoir productivity and economic feasibility. However, traditional methods for obtaining these properties are time-consuming and expensive, making them impractical for comprehensive reservoir evaluation. This study introduces a novel approach to efficiently predict rock porosity and permeability for reservoir assessment by leveraging real-time machine learning models. Utilizing readily available drilling parameters, this approach offers a cost-effective alternative to traditional time-consuming methods to predict formation petrophysical parameters in real-time. The data set used in this study was collected from two vertical wells located in the Middle East. It encompasses drilling parameters such as the rate of penetration (ROP), gallons per minute (GPM), revolutions per minute (RPM), strokes per minute (SPP), torque, and weight on bit (WOB), along with the corresponding measurements of porosity (ϕ) and permeability (k) obtained through core analysis. Three machine learning models, namely, decision trees (DTs), random forest (RFs), and support vector machines (SVMs), were employed and evaluated for their effectiveness in predicting porosity and permeability. The results demonstrate promising performance across the different data sets. All three models achieved correlation coefficients (R) higher than 0.91 in predicting porosity. The RF model exhibited accurate predictions of permeability, achieving R values surpassing 0.92 in the various data sets. While the DT model displayed slightly lower performance, with the R-value decreasing to 0.88 in the testing data set, the SVM model suffered from overfitting, with R values dropping to 0.83 in the testing data set. The novelty of this work lies in the successful application of machine learning models to the real-time prediction of reservoir properties, providing a practical and efficient solution for the oil and gas industry. By achieving correlation coefficients exceeding 0.91 and showcasing the models' efficacy in a dynamic testing data set, this study paves the way for improved decision-making processes and enhanced exploration and production activities. The innovative aspect lies in the utilization of drilling parameters for timely and cost-effective estimation, transforming conventional reservoir evaluation methods.