Real-Time Simulated Storm Surge Predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)

Abstract

Storm surge caused by tropical cyclones can cause overland flooding and lead to loss of life while damaging homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. In 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL, on 10 October with peak wind speeds near 71.9 m s-1 (161 mph) and storm surge over 4.5 m NAVD88. During Hurricane Michael, water levels and waves were predicted near real-time using a deterministic, depth-averaged, high-resolution ADCIRC+SWAN model of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The model was forced with an asymmetrical parametric vortex model (GAHM) based on Michael's National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track and strength. The authors report errors between simulated and observed water level time-series, peak water level, and timing of peak for NHC Advisories. Forecasts of water levels were within 0.5 m of observations, and the timing of peak water levels was within 1 hr as early as 48 hr before Michael’s eventual landfall. We also examined the effect of adding far-field meteorology in our TC vortex model for use in real-time forecasts. In general, we found that including far-field meteorology by blending the TC vortex with a basin-scale NWP product improved water level forecasts. However, we note that divergence between the NHC forecast track and the forecast track of the meteorological model supplying the far-field winds represents a potential limitation to operationalizing a blended wind field surge product. The approaches and data reported herein provide a transparent assessment of water level forecasts during Hurricane Michael and highlight potential future improvements for more accurate predictions.

Predictability of Hurricane Storm Surge: An Ensemble Forecasting Approach Using Global Atmospheric Model Data

“…Note that this is only a first-order approach to adjusting forecast TC intensity in atmospheric model output, which could be improved upon in future work. Compared to approaches that adjust TC intensity and structure by blending parameterized vortices with atmospheric model data [5,66], using only parameterized vortices limits our ability to represent winds away from the TC core, but it facilitates using a variety of types of already-available atmospheric model data.…”

“…Storm surges generated by tropical cyclones (TCs) are major threats to lives and property worldwide-including in the U.S., as Hurricane Ian recently demonstrated. Motivated in part by devastating TC storm surge impacts in the 2000s [1,2], the research community and U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) have advanced multiple aspects of storm surge prediction and risk communication over the last two decades [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. However, for many U.S. coastal hurricane evacuation decisions, storm surge inundation forecasts are needed at longer lead times than they are currently available [10][11][12][13][14].…”

Recent Advances and New Frontiers in Riverine and Coastal Flood Modeling

“…The framework allowed for wind speeds, water levels, currents and radiation stresses to be passed through memory during model run time. More recent studies have demonstrated the importance of accounting for and adopting coupled wave‐hydrodynamic models for coastal flooding, and this modeling framework is currently standard practice in industry and scientific studies (Bilskie, Angel, et al., 2022; Bilskie, Asher, et al., 2022).…”

“…Previous studies have explored the compounding effects of coastal ocean water level and freshwater discharge (Bevacqua et al., 2017; Gori, Lin, & Smith, 2020; Gori, Lin, & Xi, 2020; Lamb et al., 2010; H. R. Moftakhari, Salvadori, et al., 2017), coastal water level and waves (Serafin et al., 2017; Wahl et al., 2016), storm surge and river flow (Bass & Bedient, 2018; Bilskie et al., 2019, Bilskie, Angel, et al., 2022; Bilskie, Asher, et al., 2022; Kew et al., 2013; Klerk et al., 2015), storm surge and river flow with precipitation (Svensson & Jones, 2004), storm surge and precipitation (van den Hurk et al., 2015; Wahl et al., 2015; F. Zheng et al., 2013, 2014), wave/surge parameters (Corbella & Stretch, 2012, 2013; Salvadori et al., 2014, 2015; Shope et al., 2022), and storm surge, wave, river flow and precipitation (Camus et al., 2021; Nasr et al., 2021).…”

Local and Remote Storm Surge Contributions to Total Water Levels in the Gulf of St. Lawrence During Hurricane Fiona

“…Intense cyclonic storms have different wind directions around the eye of the storm, and thus impacts on coastal regions are highly variable and depend on where the storms make landfall (Manchia & Mulligan, 2022). As these storms propagate, the forward‐moving velocity of the storm generates wind field asymmetry, causing some regions to have significantly stronger wind speeds (Bilskie et al., 2022). Despite recent improvements to atmospheric modeling, hurricane landfall is becoming increasingly difficult to predict due to rapid intensification associated with climate change, and this, coupled with sea‐level rise, is exposing coastal populations to increasing cyclone hazards (Emanuel, 2017).…”