Real Time Spatial Delphi: Fast convergence of experts' opinions on the territory

Zio, Simone Di; Rosas, Juan Daniel Castillo; Lamelza, Luana

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.09.029

Cited by 41 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…It is also useful for looking at emerging developments where external factors are likely to have a determining effect and when social aspects could influence economic or technical considerations. As it implies, it supports the identification of statements (topics) that are relevant for the future through channeling the tacit and complex knowledge to a single statement and makes it possible to judge (Di Zio, Castillo Rosas et al 2017), see Table 1.…”

Section: Insights Into Regional Developmentmentioning

confidence: 86%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Rezk¹,

Radwan²,

Salem³

et al. 2019

IRD

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This paper presents energy opportunities, particular areas of high potential and reflections on energy challenges in Egypt by the year 2040. Energy foresight significantly contributes in the effective review and formulation of national energy policies and strategies. In this work, 350 experts participated in real-time Delphi survey and responded to a set of structured and cross-linked questionnaires that aim to assess and provide future dimension to the energy sector in Egypt. Priorities are presented across 14 energy cluster-areas with 180 identified topics. The two-round Delphi study with an iterative process was performed to determine and measure the expectations of the different stakeholders with specific emphasis on the prospects of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The designed cross-linkages between survey components allowed the systematic pooling and convergence of knowledge in addition to the technical insights and different perspectives. About 50% of Egypt's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of energy would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards. This work demonstrates that involving large diversity of expertise and different stakeholders, comprising heterogeneous groups, in foresight studies would potentiate the forecasting power, reduce the polarization effect, and enhance the reliability of the foresight exercise.

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Section: Insights Into Regional Developmentmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Real time Delphi was used with an online version of the structured survey to support convergence of opinion in real time (Di Zio, Castillo Rosas et al 2017). Real time Delphi is known also for its convenience when addressing large target groups with higher response rate than other similar tools (Aengenheyster, Cuhls et al 2017).…”

Section: Real Time Delphi Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Rezk¹,

Radwan²,

Salem³

et al. 2019

IRD

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…After several rounds, the final results with high intercommunity will be the ideal assessment results [39]. Delphi was then introduced to the GIS field; the spatial Delphi [40] and real-time spatial Delphi [41] methods were proposed to solve spatial problems. The questionnaire for experts' assessment was conducted on a map, and best locations for a specific purpose could be determined.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Site Selection of Retail Shops Based on Spatial Accessibility and Hybrid BP Neural Network

Wang

Fan

Wang

2018

IJGI

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The increase of consumer income has resulted in the rapid development of the retail industry in China, which provides high market potential for retail companies worldwide. However, site selection for retail shops has been a confusing business issue in practical business decisions. In this study, a two-step hybrid model in site selection for small retail shops was proposed. The two steps were spatial accessibility evaluation and market potential estimation. The spatial accessibility of target regions was evaluated based on the improved gravity model to determine regions that lack retail shops. Then, a PCA (principal component analysis)-BP (backpropagation network) model was established to estimate the market potential in the target regions. The two-step model could determine sites with the most market potential and low competition. We conducted the experiment in Guiyang, China and considered 18 socioeconomic factors to make the site selection convincing. Through the experiment, 42 locations were determined with high business value; the locations were recommended to the new retail shops. The accuracy of the PCA-BP model was then proven satisfactory by comparing it with other regression methods. The proposed model could guide retail chains in enhancing business location planning and formulating regional development policies.

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“…Initial patterns in the data may be revealed through simple density analysis [25] Data quality: create spatial representations on a map using a familiar airbrush-style interface Model [7] was followed in order to create the Real-Time Spatial Delphi method [26]. This application, named Geospatial System of Collective Intelligence (SIGIC after its acronym in Spanish), was used to allow a panel of experts to provide their opinions in an anonymous, distributed, and asynchronous real-time way to answer a spatial survey, in which each question requires an answer or specific opinion reflected in a map with given limits.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collection and Integration of Local Knowledge and Experience through a Collective Spatial Analysis

Castillo-Rosas

Diez-Rodríguez

Jiménez-Vélez

et al. 2017

IJGI

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This article discusses the convenience of adopting an approach of Collective Spatial Analysis in the P/PGIS processes, with the aim of improving the collection and integration of knowledge and local expertise in decision-making, mainly in the fields of planning and adopting territorial policies. Based on empirical evidence, as a result of the review of scientific articles from the Web of Science database, in which it is displayed how the knowledge and experience of people involved in decision-making supported by P/PGIS are collected and used, a prototype of a WEB-GSDSS application has been developed. This prototype allows a group of people to participate anonymously, in an asynchronous and distributed way, in a decision-making process to locate goods, services, or events through the convergence of their views. Via this application, two case studies for planning services in districts of Ecuador and Italy were carried out. Early results suggest that in P/PGIS local and external actors contribute their knowledge and experience to generate information that afterwards is integrated and analysed in the decision-making process. On the other hand, in a Collective Spatial Analysis, these actors analyse and generate information in conjunction with their knowledge and experience during the process of decision-making. We conclude that, although the Collective Spatial Analysis approach presented is in a subjective and initial stage, it does drive improvements in the collection and integration of knowledge and local experience, foremost among them is an interdisciplinary geo-consensus.

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Real Time Spatial Delphi: Fast convergence of experts' opinions on the territory

Cited by 41 publications

References 19 publications

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Site Selection of Retail Shops Based on Spatial Accessibility and Hybrid BP Neural Network

Collection and Integration of Local Knowledge and Experience through a Collective Spatial Analysis

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