Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Wu, Peng; Hao, Xinxin; Lau, Eric H. Y.; Wong, Jessica Y.; Leung, Kathy; Wu, Joseph T.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Leung, Gabriel M.

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.3.2000044

Cited by 461 publications

(451 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Moreover, High concentrations of cytokines were recorded in plasma of patients requiring ICU admission, such as GCSF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα, suggesting that the cytokine storm was associated with disease severity [7]. A retrospective clinical study indicated the risk of fatality among hospitalized cases at 4.3% in single-center case series of 138 hospitalized patients [8], and the infection fatality risk could be below 1% or even below 0.1% in a large number of undetected relatively mild infections [9]. However, It is challenging to judge the severity and predict the consequences with the information available so far.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lianhuaqingwen exerts anti-viral and anti-inflammatory activity against novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Hou

Huang

et al. 2020

Pharmacological Research

560

436

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Zifeng Yang). AbstractPurpose: Lianhuaqingwen (LH) as traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula has been used to treat influenza and exerted broad-spectrum antiviral effects on a series of influenza viruses and immune regulatory effects [1]. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the antiviral activity of LH against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus and its potential effect in regulating host immune response. Methods: The antiviral activity of LH against SARS-CoV-2 was assessed in Vero E6 cells using CPE and plaque reduction assay. The effect of LH on virion morphology was visualized under transmission electron microscope. Pro-inflammatory cytokine expression levels upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in Huh-7 cells were measured by real-time quantitative PCR assays. Results: LH significantly inhibited SARS-CoV-2 replication in Vero E6 cells and markedly reduced pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6, CCL-2/MCP-1 and CXCL-10/IP-10) production at the mRNA levels. Furthermore, LH treatment resulted in abnormal particle morphology of virion in cells. J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o fConclusions: LH significantly inhibits the SARS-COV-2 replication, affects virus morphology and exerts anti-inflammatory activity in vitro. These findings indicate that LH protects against the virus attack, making its use a novel strategy for controlling the COVID-19 disease.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lianhuaqingwen exerts anti-viral and anti-inflammatory activity against novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Hou

Huang

et al. 2020

Pharmacological Research

560

436

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Several reports have suggested that person-to-person transmission is a likely route for spreading COVID-19 infection. This is supported by cases that occurred within families and among people who did not visit the wet animal market in Wuhan [13,21]. Person-to-person transmission occurs primarily via direct contact or through droplets spread by coughing or sneezing from an infected individual.…”

Section: Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 85%

The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Rothan

Byrareddy

2020

Journal of Autoimmunity

4,947

4,146

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“…Still, crucial questions remain unanswered and accurate answers for predicting the 369 dynamics of the outbreak simply cannot be obtained at this stage. We emphatically 370 underline the uncertainty of available official data, particularly pertaining to the true 371 baseline number of infected (cases), that may lead to ambiguous results and inaccurate 372 forecasts by orders of magnitude, as also pointed out by other investigators [1,17,22].…”

mentioning

confidence: 75%

Data-Based Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak

Anastassopoulou

Russo²,

Tsakris

et al. 2020

Preprint

279

272

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Since the first suspected case of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) on December 1st, 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, a total of 40,235 confirmed cases and 909 deaths have been reported in China up to February 10, 2020, evoking fear locally and internationally. Here, based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Hubei, China from January 11 to February 10, 2020, we provide estimates of the main epidemiological parameters. In particular, we provide an estimation of the case fatality and case recovery ratios, along with their 90% confidence intervals as the outbreak evolves. On the basis of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIDR) model, we provide estimations of the basic reproduction number (R0), and the per day infection mortality and recovery rates. By calibrating the parameters of the SIRD model to the reported data, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the of the outbreak at the epicenter three weeks ahead, i.e. until February 29. As the number of infected individuals, especially of those with asymptomatic or mild courses, is suspected to be much higher than the official numbers, which can be considered only as a subset of the actual numbers of infected and recovered cases in the total population, we have repeated the calculations under a second scenario that considers twenty times the number of confirmed infected cases and forty times the number of recovered, leaving the number of deaths unchanged. Based on the reported data, the expected value of R0 as computed considering the period from the 11th of January until the 18th of January, using the official counts of confirmed cases was found to be ~4.6, while the one computed under the second scenario was found to be ~3.2. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be ~2.6 based on confirmed cases and ~2 based on the second scenario. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of infected could reach 180,000 (with lower bound of 45,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of the up to the 10th of February reported data, the death toll might exceed 2,700 (as a lower bound) by February 29. Our analysis further reveals a significant decline of the case fatality ratio from January 26 to which various factors may have contributed, such as the severe control measures taken in Hubei, China (e.g. quarantine and hospitalization of infected individuals), but mainly because of the fact that the actual cumulative numbers of infected and recovered cases in the population most likely are much higher than the reported ones. Thus, in a scenario where we have taken twenty times the confirmed number of infected and forty times the confirmed number of recovered cases, the case fatality ratio is around 0.15% in the total population. Importantly, based on this scenario, simulations suggest a slow down of the outbreak in Hubei at the end of February.

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Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Cited by 461 publications

References 18 publications

Lianhuaqingwen exerts anti-viral and anti-inflammatory activity against novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Lianhuaqingwen exerts anti-viral and anti-inflammatory activity against novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Data-Based Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak

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