Real world evaluation of kidney failure risk equations in predicting progression from chronic kidney disease to kidney failure in an Australian cohort

Abstract

Background Chronic kidney disease progression to kidney failure is diverse, and progression may be different according to genetic aspects and settings of care. We aimed to describe kidney failure risk equation prognostic accuracy in an Australian population. Methods A retrospective cohort study was undertaken in a public hospital community-based chronic kidney disease service in Brisbane, Australia, which included a cohort of 406 adult patients with chronic kidney disease Stages 3–4 followed up over 5 years (1/1/13–1/1/18). Risk of progression to kidney failure at baseline using Kidney Failure Risk Equation models with three (eGFR/age/sex), four (add urinary-ACR) and eight variables (add serum-albumin/phosphate/bicarbonate/calcium) at 5 and 2 years were compared to actual patient outcomes. Results Of 406 patients followed up over 5 years, 71 (17.5%) developed kidney failure, while 112 died before reaching kidney failure. The overall mean difference between observed and predicted risk was 0.51% (p = 0.659), 0.93% (p = 0.602), and − 0.03% (p = 0.967) for the three-, four- and eight-variable models, respectively. There was small improvement in the receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve from three-variable to four-variable models: 0.888 (95%CI = 0.819–0.957) versus 0.916 (95%CI = 0.847–0.985). The eight-variable model showed marginal receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve improvement: 0.916 (95%CI = 0.847–0.985) versus 0.922 (95%CI = 0.853–0.991). The results were similar in predicting 2 year risk of kidney failure. Conclusions The kidney failure risk equation accurately predicted progression to kidney failure in an Australian chronic kidney disease population. Younger age, male sex, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher albuminuria, diabetes mellitus, tobacco smoking and non-Caucasian ethnicity were associated with increased risk of kidney failure. Cause-specific cumulative incidence function for progression to kidney failure or death, stratified by chronic kidney disease stage, demonstrated differences within different chronic kidney disease stages, highlighting the interaction between comorbidity and outcome.