Real-world rogue wave probabilities

Häfner, Dion; Gemmrich, Johannes; Jochum, Markus

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-89359-1

Cited by 34 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…whether the rogue wave definition by a certain height or crest threshold is useful in practice (Häfner et al, 2021). Several authors have, based on large measurement datasets, come to the conclusion that these rogue waves are rare, but nevertheless realisations of commonly used wave distributions (e.g., Waseda et al, 2011;Christou and Ewans, 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow water: a case study in the southern North Sea

Teutsch

Brühl

Weisse

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The shallow waters off the coast of Norderney in the southern North Sea are characterised by a higher frequency of rogue wave occurrences than expected according to second-order theory. The role of nonlinear processes for the generation of rogue waves at this location is currently unclear. Within the framework of the Korteweg–de Vries (KdV) equation, we investigated the discrete soliton spectra of measured time series at Norderney to determine differences between time series with and without rogue waves. For this purpose, we applied a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation with vanishing boundary conditions (vKdV-NLFT). For each time series containing a rogue wave, we were able to identify at least one soliton in the discrete nonlinear vKdV-NLFT spectrum that contributed to the occurrence of the rogue wave in that time series. The amplitudes of these solitons were generally found to be smaller than the crest height of the corresponding rogue wave and interaction with the continuous wave spectrum is needed to fully explain the observed rogue wave. Time series with and without rogue waves showed different characteristic soliton spectra. In most of the spectra calculated from rogue wave time series, most of the solitons clustered around similar heights, while the largest soliton was outstanding with an amplitude significantly larger than all other solitons. The presence of a clearly outstanding soliton in the spectrum was found to be an indicator pointing towards enhanced probability for detecting a rogue wave in the time series. Similarly, when the discrete spectrum appears as a cluster of solitons without the presence of a clearly outstanding soliton, the presence of a rogue wave in the observed time series is unlikely. Under the hypothesis that the KdV describes the evolution of the sea state around the measurement site well, these results suggest that solitons and nonlinear processes substantially contribute to the enhanced occurrence of rogue waves off Norderney.

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confidence: 99%

Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow water: a case study in the southern North Sea

Teutsch

Brühl

Weisse

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Most recent findings by Häfner et al (2021b) revealed, based on machine learning algorithms applied to Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) buoy data from the US coast with > 1 m, that the spectral bandwidth ( and ) provides some information on the probability of rogue waves according to the height criterion. Furthermore, their study revealed that bandwidth effects are not relevant for wave crests.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on our measurement data, we can confirm these results: although we observed slightly higher bandwidths than usual in crest rogue wave time series, these differences showed to be statistically insignificant. The CDIP data set includes data from water depths between aproximately 10 and 4,500 m. Häfner et al (2021b) supposed that the influence of second-order nonlinearities on wave crests might be higher than estimated on the basis of buoy measurement data. Wave buoys tend to cancel second-order nonlinearities by their own Lagrangian movement and thus to overestimate the mean water level, which in turn leads to an underestimation of crest heights (Forristall 2000).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Christou and Ewans (2014) stated, based on radar and laser data from the North Sea and other locations, that the spectral bandwidth might be an indicator for distinguishing rogue waves from high non-rogue waves. Most recent findings by Häfner et al (2021b), based on machine learning algorithms applied to buoy data from the US coast, showed that the spectral bandwidth was much more informative about rogue wave probability than the BFI.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rogue Waves in the Southern North Sea—The Role of Modulational Instability

Teutsch

Weiße

2023

Journal of Physical Oceanography

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The role of the modulational instability for rogue wave generation in the ocean is still under debate. We investigated a continuous data set, consisting of buoy and radar wave elevation data of different frequency resolutions, from eight measurement stations in the southern North Sea. For periods with rogue waves, we evaluated the presence of conditions for the modulational instability to work, that is, a narrow-banded wave spectrum in both, frequency and angular direction. We found rogue waves exceeding twice the significant wave height indeed to occur at slightly lower frequency bandwidths than usual. For rogue waves that are defined only by high crests, this was, however, not the case. The results were dependent on the measurement frequency. The directional spreading of the buoy spectra yielded no information on the presence of a rogue wave. In general, all spectra estimated from the data set were found to be broad in frequency and angular direction, while the Benjamin–Feir index yielded no indication on a high nonlinearity of the sea states. These are unfavorable conditions for the evolution of a rogue wave through modulational instability. We conclude that the modulational instability did not play a substantial role in the formation of the rogue waves identified in our data set from the southern North Sea.

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“…In situ measurements play an important role in the investigation of the characteristics and frequencies of the appearance of rogue waves in nature. Such in situ wave measurements are carried out in different locations of World Ocean, for example (Didenkulova and Anderson, 2010;Mori et al, 2002;Stansell, 2004;Christou and Ewans, 2014;Häfner et al, 2021). However, their amount and locations of measurements are limited.…”

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confidence: 99%

Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions

Didenkulova¹,

Didenkulova²,

Medvedev³

2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Freak or rogue waves are unexpectedly large waves in seas and oceans, which occur without specific reasons, and cause human loss, damage of ships, oil platforms, and coastal structures. Evidences of such waves are widely spread around the globe. The present paper is devoted to analysis of the unified collection of freak wave events from different chronicles and catalogues from 2005 to 2021. The considered rogue waves are not measured in situ data, but their descriptions, which have been found in the mass media sources and scientific articles. All of them resulted in ship or coastal/offshore structure damage and/or human losses. The collection accounts for 429 events. First, the analysis based on their characteristics taken from the descriptions of the events (including locations, water depth, damages) is carried out. Second, the analysis of wave parameters taken from the climate reanalysis ERA5 is performed. Thus, the most probable background wave parameters in time of freak event (including wind speed, gusts, significant wave height, maximum wave height, peak wave period, skewness, and kurtosis) for each freak wave event are determined.

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Real-world rogue wave probabilities

Cited by 34 publications

References 46 publications

Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow water: a case study in the southern North Sea

Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow water: a case study in the southern North Sea

Rogue Waves in the Southern North Sea—The Role of Modulational Instability

Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions

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