Realignment and Recidivism Revisited: A Closer Look at the Effects of California’s Historic Correctional Reform on Recidivism Outcomes

Abstract

California’s 2011 Public Safety Realignment has received considerable attention nationally as a watershed moment in the movement to downsize prisons. The present study leverages data collected in 12 California counties to provide the most comprehensive examination to date of how Realignment has impacted recidivism for the key offender groups targeted in the reform. We find small to modest increases in rearrest in three of four groups targeted in the reform. The fourth group experienced moderate decreases in rearrest. Moreover, all groups experienced decreases in reconviction, which gives credence to the idea that a significant reprioritization of who should be in prison can positively affect public safety. These findings point to the complex ways that reforms like Realignment can affect custodial and community-based supervision systems by changing incentives for law enforcement and the people who supervise offenders. Our conclusions discuss the implications for other states and systems considering similar reforms.

Introduction: The Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19

“…While the homicide increase roughly corresponds with the timing of the pandemic, a closer look at data on the change suggests that the timing of the pandemic does not align with the increase in violence. Several researchers have documented that city-level homicide counts initially were suppressed by stay-athome orders and then began to rise during early summer 2020 (Bird, Nguyen, and Grattet 2021;Lopez and Rosenfeld 2021). Similarly, the UN Office of Drugs and Crime documents similar patterns in several countries, homicide rates staying below average for much of 2020, though for most countries not increasing as in the United States (UNODC 2020).…”

“…V iolence a nd its impac ts on cRimin a l JUs tice 2020 was a violent year. Most forms of property crimes and violent crime actually declined relative to 2019 (Abrams 2020;Bird, Nguyen, and Grattet 2021). 3 Homicide rates, however, increased sharply from 5.1 to 6.5 per hundred thousand.…”

“…Overall, despite the sharp contraction associated with the onset of the pandemic, the federal government's direct cash payments, expan- (Abrams 2020;Bird, Nguyen, and Grattet 2021). Despite considerable speculation regarding cause, the source of this increase is not well understood.…”