Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty

Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Islam, Asif; Wood, Christina A.; Fan, Rachel Yuting; Lotfi, Rana; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Nguyen, Ha H.

doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1865-3

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Outlooks are available for GDP, population sizes, and inflation figures. The WEO tends to have positive bias, documented for instance by Gatti et al (2022), and may be understood as economic targets that can be met if identified risks are managed. The April WEO is put together during January -March.…”

Section: B Prediction Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts

Andrée¹

2022

Policy Research Working Papers

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The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Section: B Prediction Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts

Andrée¹

2022

Policy Research Working Papers

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“…However, there are increasing risks to growth in the subregion. Several countries in North Africa, such as Egypt, are net importers of oil and food and they began 2022 with high levels of debt (Gatti et al 2022). Morocco has become a net importer of food because of drought -an example of how Africa is becoming more vulnerable to climate change.…”

Section: Labour Market Trends In North Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are likely to be very different pictures for the net resource exporters and the other countries in the region. Hydrocarbon-exporting countries such as those in the GCC are predicted to benefit from higher commodity prices resulting from the conflict in Ukraine, although this highlights the region's ongoing reliance on fossil fuel production and vulnerability to global prices (Gatti et al 2022). Continuing political and economic turmoil in the region is also affecting the region's prospects; for example, the situation in Lebanon continues to limit inward investment.…”

Section: Arab Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

2 Employment and social trends by region

Horne¹

2023

World Employ Soc Outlook

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Chapter 2 presents labour market trends by broadly defined region and predominantly shows how decent work deficits affect all regions to different degrees. For each region, key labour market indicators are analysed, alongside an assessment of the region's overall economic development. This is followed by a focus on different thematic areas per region, including the job creation potential from climate change adaptation in Africa, implications for jobs with the just transition in the Arab States and ongoing shortages of migrant workers in Southeast Asia from the COVID‐19 pandemic. The thematic areas were proposed by regional experts and reflect pressing problems related to decent work in the respective region.

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“…While MENA's forecasted growth for 2022 was 5.5% (World Bank, 2022b), Gatti et al (2022) question whether the region's recovery to pre-pandemic standards of living is possible. They also note that this optimistic figure masks variations in regional growth between the more prosperous oil exporting and less wealthy oil importing countries.…”

Section: Decent Work and Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Together with rising global food prices fuelled by the war in Ukraine, the region faces intensified challenges of food poverty and insecurity. So significant are such challenges that Gatti et al (2022) predict that social unrest is likely to follow. Furthermore, the region includes some of the world's most water scarce countries, which consequently threatens their access to fresh water (Sakmar et al, 2011).…”

Section: Decent Work and Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing responsible management in the Middle East and North Africa region: reviewing PRME progress

Goumaa,

Hay,

El Ayouby

2023

JMD

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Purpose Reflecting emerging concerns about Principles of Responsible Management Education’s (PRME's) reach beyond the West, the authors provide an analysis of its contribution to responsible management development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.Design/methodology/approach Drawing on 18 PRME MENA signatories' Sharing Information on Progress Reports, the authors examine levels of engagement with PRME, as well the practices used in the region to progress its six principles. The authors examine the depth of integration based on Rusinko's (2010) typology and its success in addressing local responsible management challenges.Findings The analysis revealed modest levels of engagement with PRME in MENA. Consistent with other regions, for those actively participating, the authors identified a wide variation in PRME responses. First, the authors found wide variation in the interpretation of the six principles. Second, the authors found a diversity of practices, especially the extent to which efforts were linked to progressing local management challenges. Third, the authors also found variability relating to the depth of PRME's integration into the curricular of MENA signatories with, most displaying Ruskino's (2010) narrower approaches.Originality/value The authors address calls to understand the contribution of PRME beyond Western contexts and offer suggestions for how PRME can be strengthened to facilitate responsible management development in MENA.

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Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty

Abstract: The team received invaluable inputs from Minh Cong Nguyen and the MENA region country economists, namely Jaime

Cited by 8 publications

References 20 publications

Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts

Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts

2 Employment and social trends by region

Developing responsible management in the Middle East and North Africa region: reviewing PRME progress

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