We compare herein polar processing diagnostics derived from the four most recent full-input reanalysis datasets: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis / Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modern Era 5 Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). We focus on diagnostics based on temperatures and potential vorticity (PV) in the lower to middle stratosphere that are related to formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), chlorine activation, and the strength, size, and longevity of the stratospheric polar vortex.
Polar minimum temperatures (T min ) and the area of regions having temperatures below PSC formation thresholds (A PSC )show large persistent differences between the reanalyses, especially in the southern hemisphere (SH), for years prior to 1999.
10Average absolute differences of the reanalyses from the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) in T min are as large as 3 K at some levels in the SH (1.5 K in the NH), and absolute differences of reanalysis A PSC from the REM up to 1.5% of a hemisphere (0.75% of a hemisphere in the NH). After 1999, the reanalyses converge toward better agreement in both hemispheres, dramatically so in the SH: Average T min differences from the REM are generally less than 1 K in both hemispheres, and average A PSC differences less than 0.3% of a hemisphere.
15The comparisons of diagnostics based on isentropic PV for assessing polar vortex characteristics, including maximum PV gradients (MPVG) and the area of the vortex in sunlight (or sunlit vortex area, SVA), show more complex behavior: SH MPVG showed convergence toward better agreement with the REM after 1999, while NH MPVG differences remained largely constant over time; differences in SVA remained relatively constant in both hemispheres. While the average differences from the REM are generally small for these vortex diagnostics, understanding such differences among the reanalyses is complicated by the 20 need to use different methods to obtain vertically-resolved PV for the different reanalyses.We also evaluated other winter season summary diagnostics, including the winter mean volume of air below PSC thresholds, and vortex decay dates. For the volume of air below PSC thresholds, the reanalyses generally agree best in the SH, where relatively small interannual variability has led to many winter seasons with similar polar processing potential and duration, and thus low sensitivity to differences in meteorological conditions among the reanalyses. In contrast, the large interannual vari-25 1 https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180006584 2020-07-08T12:56:21+00:00Z ability of NH winters has given rise to many seasons with marginal conditions that are more sensitive to reanalysis differences.For vortex decay dates, larger differences...