Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

McManamay, Ryan A.; Kc, Binita; Allen‐Dumas, Melissa; Kao, Shih‐Chieh; Brelsford, Christa; Ruddell, Benjamin L.; Sanyal, Jibonananda; Stewart, Richard C.; Bhaduri, Budhendra

doi:10.1029/2020wr027751

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Unlike previous studies providing national estimates of public supply water withdrawal, this work compiles the most comprehensive data set considered in national water withdrawal studies. Results of the 2000–2020 reanalysis indicate significant differences in water withdrawal trends relative to previous studies (e.g., Dieter et al., 2018; McManamay et al., 2021) that appear to be overly optimistic about reductions in the amount of national average per‐capita and total water withdrawal for 2000–2015. In contrast to this previous water withdrawal trend analysis, this current work indicates that total public supply withdrawals have increased by 7.56% over the last 20 years; decreases in population‐weighted average per‐capita withdrawals of 7.77% have been outpaced by 16.65% increases in the population served by public supply system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Next Generation Public Supply Water Withdrawal Estimation for the Conterminous United States Using Machine Learning and Operational Frameworks

Alzraiee,

Niswonger,

Luukkonen

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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Estimation of human water withdrawals is more important now than ever due to uncertain water supplies, population growth, and climate change. Fourteen percent of the total water withdrawal in the United States is used for public supply, typically including deliveries to domestic, commercial, and occasionally including industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric water withdrawal. Stewards of water resources in the USA require estimates of water withdrawals to manage and plan for future demands and sustainable water supplies. This study compiled the most comprehensive conterminous United States water withdrawal data set to date and developed a machine learning framework for estimating public supply withdrawals and associated uncertainty for the period 2000–2020. The modeling approach provides service area resolution estimates to allow for annual and monthly water withdrawal estimation while incorporating a complex array of driving factors that include hydroclimatic, demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and land use factors. Model results reveal highly variable and lognormally distributed per‐capita water withdrawal, spanning from 30 to 650 gallons per capita per day (GPCD), across community, regional, and national scales, with pronounced seasonal variations. Analysis of estimated withdrawal trends indicates that the national annual average withdrawal experienced a decline at a rate of 0.58 GPCD/year during the period from 2000 to 2020. Model interpretation reveals a complex interplay between public supply withdrawal and key predictors, including population size, warm‐season precipitation, counts of large buildings and houses, and areas of urban and commercial land use. The developed models can forecast future public supply driven by various climate, demographic, and socioeconomic scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Next Generation Public Supply Water Withdrawal Estimation for the Conterminous United States Using Machine Learning and Operational Frameworks

Alzraiee,

Niswonger,

Luukkonen

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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“…The county‐level CRM dataset was combined with the CDL‐derived crop rotation map and the USDA‐NASS crop planting area to estimate historical spatial distributions of tillage practices. The annual crop‐specific irrigation dataset from 1950 to 2018 was downscaled from the county‐level irrigation reanalysis (McManamay et al., 2021) and NASS irrigated cropland area survey, using the MODIS Irrigated Agriculture Dataset (Brown & Pervez, 2014; Pervez & Brown, 2010) as a base map. The annual manure N application dataset from 1860 to 2018 was acquired from Bian et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Net greenhouse gas balance in U.S. croplands: How can soils be part of the climate solution?

You,

Tian,

Pan

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Agricultural soils play a dual role in regulating the Earth's climate by releasing or sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) in soil organic carbon (SOC) and emitting non‐CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). To understand how agricultural soils can play a role in climate solutions requires a comprehensive assessment of net soil GHG balance (i.e., sum of SOC‐sequestered CO2 and non‐CO2 GHG emissions) and the underlying controls. Herein, we used a model‐data integration approach to understand and quantify how natural and anthropogenic factors have affected the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of the net soil GHG balance in U.S. croplands during 1960–2018. Specifically, we used the dynamic land ecosystem model for regional simulations and used field observations of SOC sequestration rates and N2O and CH4 emissions to calibrate, validate, and corroborate model simulations. Results show that U.S. agricultural soils sequestered Tg CO2‐C year−1 in SOC (at a depth of 3.5 m) during 1960–2018 and emitted Tg N2O‐N year−1 and Tg CH4‐C year−1, respectively. Based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100‐year time horizon), the estimated national net GHG emission rate from agricultural soils was Tg CO2‐eq year−1, with the largest contribution from N2O emissions. The sequestered SOC offset ~28% of the climate‐warming effects resulting from non‐CO2 GHG emissions, and this offsetting effect increased over time. Increased nitrogen fertilizer use was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in net GHG emissions during 1960–2018, explaining ~47% of total changes. In contrast, reduced cropland area, the adoption of agricultural conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage), and rising atmospheric CO2 levels attenuated net GHG emissions from U.S. croplands. Improving management practices to mitigate N2O emissions represents the biggest opportunity for achieving net‐zero emissions in U.S. croplands. Our study highlights the importance of concurrently quantifying SOC‐sequestered CO2 and non‐CO2 GHG emissions for developing effective agricultural climate change mitigation measures.

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“…We use the LADWP value for less dense urban areas in the Southwest and lower fractions for wetter and/or more dense urban areas. Because consistent, spatially explicit data on sectoral urban water use, especially disaggregated between indoor and outdoor users, is limited (McManamay et al., 2021), further analysis is planned to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to different urban water demand assumptions.…”

Section: The Western Us Water Systems Model (Wwsm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

Yates,

Szinai,

Jones

2023

Earth's Future

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Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely connected, with hydropower comprising 20% of total annual WUS generation, and electricity related to water comprising about 7% of total WUS electricity use. Because of these interdependencies, the threat of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding electricity impacts on the Western Interconnect grid. This study describes a WUS‐wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water‐related electricity use, which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support climate‐resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines climatically‐driven physical hydrology and management of both water supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15 climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual water‐related electricity use increases up to 4%, and by up to 6% during the summer months, driven by growing agricultural demands met increasingly through a shift toward energy‐intensive groundwater to replace declining surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to −20% by mid‐century but declines in most scenarios, with decreases in summer generation by up to nearly −30%. Water‐related electricity use increases tend to coincide with hydropower generation declines, annually and seasonally, demonstrating the importance of concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water‐for‐energy and energy‐for‐water to inform planning for grid reliability and decarbonization goals.

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Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Cited by 15 publications

References 52 publications

Next Generation Public Supply Water Withdrawal Estimation for the Conterminous United States Using Machine Learning and Operational Frameworks

Next Generation Public Supply Water Withdrawal Estimation for the Conterminous United States Using Machine Learning and Operational Frameworks

Net greenhouse gas balance in U.S. croplands: How can soils be part of the climate solution?

Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

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