Reappraisal of great historical earthquakes in the northern Chile and southern Peru seismic gaps

Comte, D.; Pardo, Mario

doi:10.1007/bf00126557

Cited by 262 publications

(235 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

227

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The length and positions of rupture planes along the trench were taken from data collections of Beck et al (1998), Comte et al (1986), Comte & Pardo (1991) and Udías et al (2012). The rupture length and location for recent strong events were taken from Barrientos & Ward (1990) for the M9.6 1960 Valdivia earthquake, Delouis et al (1997) for the M7.6 1987 earthquake near Antofagasta, Ruegg et al (1996) for the M8.0 1995 Antofagasta earthquake, Pritchard & Simons (2006) for the M9.6 1960 Valdivia earthquake, Chlieh et al (2011) for the M8.4 2001 Arequipa earthquake, the rupture plane of which extends well into our area of investigation, Schurr et al (2014) for the M7.9 2007 Tocopilla earthquake, Yue et al (2014) for the M8.8 2010 Maule earthquake, Geersen et al (2015) and Schurr et al (2014) for the M8.1 2014 Iquique earthquake, and Tilmann et al (2016) for the M8.2 2015 Illapel earthquake.…”

Section: Data Preparationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing stress shadowing effects at the South American subduction zone

Roth¹,

Dahm²,

Hainzl³

2017

Geophysical Journal International

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

S U M M A R YThe seismic gap hypothesis assumes that a characteristic earthquake is followed by a long period with a reduced occurrence probability for the next large event on the same fault segment, as a consequence of the induced stress shadow. The gap model is commonly accepted by geologists and is often used for time-dependent seismic hazard estimations. However, systematic and rigorous tests to verify the seismic gap model have often failed so far, which might be partially related to limited data and too tight model assumptions. In this study, we relax the assumption of a characteristic size and location of repeating earthquakes and analyse one of the best available data sets, namely the historical record of major earthquakes along a 3000 km long linear segment of the South American subduction zone. To test whether a stress shadow effect is observable, we compiled a comprehensive catalogue of mega-thrust earthquakes along this plate boundary from 1520 to 2015 containing 174 earthquakes with M w > 6.5. In our new testing approach, we analyse the time span between an earthquake and the last event that ruptured the epicentre location, where we consider the impact of the uncertainties of epicentres and rupture extensions. Assuming uniform boundary conditions along the trench, we compare the distribution of these recurrence times with simple recurrence models. We find that the distribution is in all cases almost exponentially distributed corresponding to a random (Poissonian) process; despite some tendencies for clustering of the M w ≥ 7 events and a weak quasi-periodicity of the M w ≥ 8 earthquakes, respectively. To verify whether the absence of a clear stress shadow signal is related to physical assumptions or data uncertainties, we perform simulations of a physics-based stochastic earthquake model considering rate and state-dependent earthquake nucleation, which are adapted to the observations with regard to the number of events, spatial extend, size distribution and involved uncertainties. Our simulations show that the catalogue uncertainties lead to a significant blurring of the theoretically peaked distribution, but the distribution would be still distinguishable from the observed one for M w ≥ 7 events. However, considering the stress transfer to adjacent fault segments and heterogeneous instead of constant stress drop within the rupture zone can explain the observed recurrence time distribution. We conclude that simplified recurrence models, ignoring the complexity of the underlying physical process, cannot be applied for forecasting the M w ≥ 7 earthquake occurrence at this plate boundary.

show abstract

Section: Data Preparationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing stress shadowing effects at the South American subduction zone

Roth¹,

Dahm²,

Hainzl³

2017

Geophysical Journal International

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Each interplate earthquake has a stick-slip patch around its centroid. Once a stick-slip patch is defined by an interplate earthquake, it will only slip by earthquake motion, not by creep The areas for the 1868 and the 1877 events were derived from intensity distributions presented by Comte and Pardo (1991), and the area of the 1906 event is from Kanamori and McNally (1982). g The New Britain, Solomon, New Hebrides, Tonga, and Kermadec trenches (1960, M9.5; 2010, M8.8) 2.…”

Section: Validity Of Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of strain accumulation in global subduction zones from seismicity data

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We compared the cumulative seismic slip of interplate earthquakes (≥M5.5) with relative plate motion at subduction zones. By assuming that each interplate earthquake occurred on a stick-slip patch, we used the slip history of each patch to calculate the interplate slip in the surrounding area. We considered that areas in which interplate earthquakes occurred but that had small cumulative slips compared with relative plate motion were accumulating strain, and we calculated the size of these areas. We first used this method to test the rupture areas of six M9-class interplate earthquakes that have occurred during the past 100 years. The cumulative seismic slip preceding and following the six earthquakes was smaller than the relative plate motion in the rupture areas of the earthquakes. We interpret the areas of slip-deficient stick-slip patches to be the rupture areas of future huge earthquakes. We applied the same procedure to global subduction zones and found that slip-deficient stick-slip patches with large spatial extents (equivalent to the rupture area of M9-class earthquakes) occur in an additional 25 locations. Considering that six M9-class earthquakes have occurred in the past 110 years and that the recurrence interval in each case is probably between a few hundred and a thousand years, it is not surprising that 25 regions globally are capable of producing M9-class earthquakes. These regions may be the most likely candidates for the rupture areas of future M9-class interplate earthquakes.

show abstract

“…"Con el terremoto de Arequipa de 1868 se produjo en Talcahuano una ola desbordante que comenzó por un retroceso del mar que hizo varar a los buques surtos en el puerto sobre 7 i 7.5 metros de agua, produciéndose en seguida una ola que inundó parte del pueblo y que subió no menos de 4.5 metros sobre el nivel ordinario de marea llena, ocasionando grandes perjuicios en el pueblo". Esta descripción no deja de ser trascendente para la evaluación del riesgo de la actual ciudad de Talcahuano, toda vez que se está a la espera de que ocurra un nuevo gran terremoto en el norte de Chile (Comte & Pardo, 1991 "A esta ciudad [Concepción] llego el temblor y fue á las diez y media de la noche y aun que duro buen tiempo no hiço daño alguno".…”

Section: Análisis Del Terremoto De Chile Central De 1647unclassified

El terremoto de 1647 de Chile central como un evento intraplaca: ¿otra amenaza para Chile metropolitano?

Cisternas

2012

Rev. geogr. Norte Gd.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

RESUMENEl terremoto del 13 de mayo de 1647, la mayor catástrofe en la historia colonial de Chile central, es considerado como el segundo evento de la secuencia de terremotos interplaca que ha ocurrido con una sorprendente regularidad en esta parte de Chile. Sin embargo, el análisis histórico realizado sugiere que este terremoto, además de generar un enérgico y extenso sacudimiento en el valle central, no habría producido un tsunami. Ambas características podrían signifi car que se trató de un evento tipo intraplaca, originado superfi cialmente en la placa continental o profundo en la de Nazca. Los efectos reportados se asemejan más a los del terremoto de Chillán de 1939, un evento intraplaca de profundidad intermedia que aunque no produjo un tsunami generó grandes intensidades en el valle central y una enorme cantidad de víctimas. Si el terremoto de 1647 fue intraplaca, se plantea un problemático escenario de riesgo para la región más poblada del país.Palabras clave: Terremoto de 1647, terremoto intraplaca, sismología histórica, Chile central. ABSTRACTThe May 13, 1647 earthquake, the larger catastrophe in the colonial history of central Chile, is considered as the second event of the inter-plate earthquakes series that has occurred at regular intervals in this part of Chile. However, this historical analysis suggests this earthquake, besides generating a strong and widespread shaking in the central valley, did not produced a tsunami. Both features could imply it was an intra-plate event, sourced in the surface of the continental plate or deeper in the Nazca plate. The reported effects resemble those from the 1939 Chillan earthquake, a middle-depth intra-plate event that although it did not produce a tsunami it does generated large intensities in the central valley and a huge number of victims. If the 1647 earthquake was intra-plate, a problematic risk scenario is set for the most populated region of the country.

show abstract

Reappraisal of great historical earthquakes in the northern Chile and southern Peru seismic gaps

Cited by 262 publications

References 9 publications

Testing stress shadowing effects at the South American subduction zone

Testing stress shadowing effects at the South American subduction zone

Evaluation of strain accumulation in global subduction zones from seismicity data

El terremoto de 1647 de Chile central como un evento intraplaca: ¿otra amenaza para Chile metropolitano?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About