Purpose To examine individual and area-level socioeconomic factors that predict the onset of work restriction in employed persons with lower limb joint pain. Methods Population-based prospective cohort study. Adults were aged 50–59, reported hip, knee, foot pain or a combination and maintained employment through 3 year follow-up (n = 716). Work restriction was measured as inability to participate in work as desired. Multi-level logistic regression was used to assess the associations of work restriction onset with baseline factors: health (severity of knee pain/functional limitation, comorbidity, anxiety, depression, cognitive impairment, abnormal weight), demographic socio-economic, environment and area-level employment deprivation. Results 108 (15.1 %) reported the onset of work restriction over 3 years. Severe lower limb joint pain and functional limitation, number of affected body sites and area employment deprivation were independently associated with onset. Significant interactions indicated a greater effect of area employment deprivation on older and more depressed workers. Conclusions Results suggest that effectively preventing work disability in those with OA will require both condition-specific interventions to decrease pain and maintain function, and providing alternative employment opportunities for those with progressive functional limitations. Results in older workers are particularly concerning, as retirement ages are expected to increase in the general population.