Rebel Interdependencies and Civil War Outcomes

Abstract

The article investigates how rebel interdependencies shape civil war outcomes. The author argues that alliances between rebel groups will have serious repercussions on the management of conflict. By examining civil war outcomes between 1946 and 2008, the author shows that the presence of multiple groups, alliances among rebels, the cumulative capabilities of one's allies as well as the credibility and the durability of alliances shape war outcomes. Rebels have the means to avoid government defeat and continue conflict when the number of rebel groups the government has to confront simultaneously is high or when these groups cooperate against their common enemy. Findings show that while termination by peace agreement is unlikely for allied rebels, specifically for those that have enduring relationships, rebels with access to high levels of ally capabilities along with those who have credible alliance ties are likely to be the victors of war.

Terrorist Group Cooperation and Longevity

“…This is in spite of the fact that terrorist groups frequently interact, and the few studies to systematically examine these interactions have found important consequences (for example, Bloom ; Horowitz ). Civil war scholars are beginning to study relationships among subnational participants (for example, Bapat and Bond ; Pearlman and Cunningham ), and research suggests meaningful effects on war outcomes (Akcinaroglu ). It is unclear, however, whether terrorist groups are affected in the same ways as civil war participants.…”

A network approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

“…This suggests that multi-actor constellations matter because of strategic dynamics that arise between rebel organizations, not because such constellations are more difficult to resolve per se. In other words, our results bolster the strategic perspective through a more direct test of the full extent of strategic dynamics that is implied in, e.g., Cunningham (2006), Akcinaroglu (2012, but not adequately tested through measures of mere constellations.…”

“…We also include indicators of whether rebel organizations are splinter groups or are part of an over-arching alliance, accounting for particular dynamics that might be associated with fragmentation and coalition behavior Akcinaroglu, 2012;Christia, 2012). We code splinter and alliance characteristics based on the UCDP actor data (Petterson and Themnér, 2012) coding and using UCDP dyadic data to link this information (Harbom, Melander and Wallensteen, 2008).…”

“…A key premise in theoretical approaches to such multi-actor conflicts is that the behavior of rebel organizations is inherently strategic and interdependent (Cunningham, 2006(Cunningham, , 2011Bakke, Cunningham and Seymour, 2012;Akcinaroglu, 2012;Christia, 2012;Driscoll, 2012;Findley and Rudloff, 2012;Fjelde and Nilsson, 2012;Nygård and Weintraub, 2015;Wood and Kathman, 2015;Fjelde and Nilsson, 2018;Quinn, Joshi and Melander, 2019). Rebel organizations condition their choice to fight, use one-sided violence, or sign peace-agreements not only on government behavior, but also on the (expected) behavior of other rebel organizations.…”

Behavioral Differences in Violence: The Case of Intra-Group Differences of Paramilitaries and Guerrillas in Colombia

“…Furthermore, duration of civil conflict has been found positively associated with the number of violent groups. (see, among others, Cunningham, 2006;Cunningham, 2010;Akcinaroglu, 2012).…”