Rebel Recruitment and Migration: Theory and Evidence From Southern Senegal

Abstract

We investigate whether the threat of recruitment by rebel groups spurs domestic and international migration. The existing literature on wartime displacement has largely focused on potential victims of violence. We argue that alongside potential victims, we should expect to see the out-migration of individuals who are attractive to the rebels as potential recruits. To test this hypothesis, we draw on original survey data collected in the context of the MFDC insurgency in southern Senegal. Causal identification stems from instrumenting recruitment threat with the density of the local forest canopy cover. Analyzing data from 3,200 respondents and over 24,000 family members, we show that individuals who fit the recruitment profiles of rebel groups are more likely to leave and be sent away by their families. Our paper contributes micro-evidence for a mechanism linking violent conflict to migration, which so far has received scant attention, and provides a deeper understanding of the composition of refugee flows.

Gender and migration aspirations in Nigeria: A comparative study of the states of Edo and Kaduna

“…Violent conflict was significant at the one percent level and carried a positive sign, which indicates that the threat posed by violent conflict prompts people to flee the conflict zone. This is consistent with the findings of Schaub and Auer (2023) and Czaika and Kis-Katos (2009). To better understand the mechanisms through which gender influences migration aspirations, I added two interaction terms to the model.…”

“…This lags the measure for violent conflict-mitigating the potential problem of reverse causation. Violent conflict has been shown to induce migration(Schaub and Auer 2023;Schon 2019;Lozano et al 2010).…”

Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset

“…Ethnic-based mobilization strategies also intensify conflicts (Eck 2009). Recruitment drives can result in mass migration and displacement of those who do not want to be involved (Schaub and Auer 2022).…”

Terrorism and child mortality

“…For instance, local geographical conditions (e.g., proximity to mosquito habitats) may be conducive to the spread of malaria, which, in turn, adversely affects children's health. At the same time, certain geographical conditions (e.g., proximity to forested areas) may provide potential militants with safe havens and thus facilitate terrorist activity (Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Schaub & Auer, 2023). Similarly, year‐fixed effects ( λ ) control for the influence of global trends and events that may have affected terrorism and public health.…”