2023
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2023.1113554
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Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan

Abstract: In recent decades, water scarcity is a significant constraint for socioeconomic development and threatens livelihood in an agriculture-based developing country like Pakistan. The water crisis in the country is projected to exacerbate in the coming years, especially in the southern parts. This dire situation calls for an investigation of major droughts, associated water scarcity, and changes in teleconnection patterns over Southern Pakistan. Moderate to low Southeastern monsoon (SEM) precipitation triggered the… Show more

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Cited by 9 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…An example of an NDVI forecast for 1 st August 2000, with lead time of up to 60 days is shown in Figure 6. It can be seen that 265 the observed NDVI is anomalously low, and indeed the 1998-2000 period was the worst drought in Pakistan's recent history (Ullah et al 2023). It is clear from Figure 6 that even with a 60 day lead, the ensemble mean prediction was well below the Figure 7 shows r 2 , together with ROC-AUC for forecasts of NDVI being below the 20 th percentile on 1 st August.…”
Section: Case Study 2: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 88%
“…An example of an NDVI forecast for 1 st August 2000, with lead time of up to 60 days is shown in Figure 6. It can be seen that 265 the observed NDVI is anomalously low, and indeed the 1998-2000 period was the worst drought in Pakistan's recent history (Ullah et al 2023). It is clear from Figure 6 that even with a 60 day lead, the ensemble mean prediction was well below the Figure 7 shows r 2 , together with ROC-AUC for forecasts of NDVI being below the 20 th percentile on 1 st August.…”
Section: Case Study 2: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 88%
“…The LSTM network could thus learn from the patterns in rainfall over time by using this sequential data as input. The exact process was carried out for the temperature, surface, ground, and overall water resources [52,[59][60][61][62][63].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In Pakistan's history, droughts from 1998 to 2020 were considered severe events that resulted from disturbances in the rainfall pattern. Over recent decades, South Asia has witnessed an alarming rise in the frequency and intensity of severe monsoonal compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events, exacerbated by land-atmosphere coupling and projected to increase further under future climate change scenarios (Du & Wang, 2013;Ullah et al, 2023;. The utilization of the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) empowers the powerful observing of vegetation anomaly and natural habitats at different scales with environmental change impacts on the development of crop yield in Punjab Saeed et al, 2017).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%