Recent and Projected Future Wildfire Trends Across the Ranges of Three Spotted Owl Subspecies Under Climate Change

Wan, Ho Yi; Cushman, Samuel A.; Ganey, Joseph L.

doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00037

Cited by 29 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Together this combination of tools provides a means to define the conditions of a desired state for a healthy ecosystem and to quantify the degree of resistance and resilience of the system to perturbation, and to measure and monitor the departure from the range of natural variability in the system dynamics. Evaluating the structure and composition of landscapes relative to historical, current and future ranges of variability is fundamental to providing context and guiding management in the face of rapidly changing climate, disturbance regimes and the resulting structure and function of ecological systems (Littell et al, 2011(Littell et al, , 2018, and their impacts on focal species (e.g., Cushman et al, 2011;Wan et al, 2019).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metrics and Models for Quantifying Ecological Resilience at Landscape Scales

Cushman

McGarigal

2019

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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An explicit link between the abiotic environment, the biotic components of ecosystems, and resilience to disturbance across multiple scales is needed to operationalize the concept of ecological resilience. To accomplish this, managers must be able to measure the ecological resilience of current conditions and project resilience under future scenarios of landscape change. The goal of this paper is to present metrics and describe a process for using geospatial data, landscape pattern analysis and landscape dynamic simulation modeling to evaluate ecosystem resilience at management scales. The dynamic equilibria of species abundances, community structure, and landscape patterns that are produced under a given combination of abiotic conditions, such as topography, soils, and climate, can form a foundation to define desired conditions and measure resistance and resilience. The degree of forcing required to push the system from this dynamic range is a measure of resistance, and the rate of return to the dynamic range after the perturbation is a measure of the resilience and recovery of the system. Several tools from the field of landscape ecology are useful in defining the dynamic range of an ecosystem under natural regulation and to measure the forcing required to drive departure and the rate of recovery. Simulation models provide means to quantify the expected range of species abundance, community structure, and landscape patterns under a variety of scenarios, including the natural disturbance regime, current disturbance regime, and possible future regimes under alternative management and climate scenarios. Landscape pattern analysis and multivariate trajectory analysis provide a means to quantify conditions and change vectors relative to this desired range. Together this combination of tools provides a means to define the conditions of a desired state for an ecosystem, to quantify the degree of resistance and resilience of the system to perturbation, and to measure and monitor the departure from the range of natural variability in the system dynamics.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metrics and Models for Quantifying Ecological Resilience at Landscape Scales

Cushman

McGarigal

2019

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…Climate projections for much of western North America suggest drier weather punctuated by periods of intense precipitation resulting in more severe wildfires (Wan et al ), which could further affect spotted owl populations. Research has shown both negative and positive effects of wildfire, timber harvest, and fuels treatments on spotted owl populations (Ganey et al ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate projections for much of western North America suggest drier weather punctuated by periods of intense precipitation resulting in more severe wildfires (Wan et al 2019), which could further affect spotted owl populations.…”

Section: Spotted Owlmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of the effects of barred owls on spotted owls

Long

Wolfe

2019

J Wildl Manag

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Barred owls (Strix varia) are forest‐dwelling owls, native to eastern North America, with populations that expanded westward into the range of the spotted owl (Strix occidentalis). Barred owls exert an overwhelmingly negative influence on spotted owls, thereby threatening spotted owl population viability where the species co‐occur. In this review, we provide an overview of the barred owl's range expansion and detail and synthesize previously published literature on spotted and barred owls within the range of the spotted owl as related to potential future outcomes for the northern spotted owl (S. o. caurina). We include research on diet, habitat use and selection, effects of barred owls on spotted owl demography and behavior, hybridization with spotted owls, parasites, contemporary management, and future research needs for spotted owl populations given continued barred owl expansion throughout western North America. Our literature review and synthesis should provide managers with the information necessary to develop strategies that mitigate deleterious effects of barred owls at local and landscape scales. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.

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“…Understanding the effects of climate change may be particularly important for species that are already threatened by other factors because climate change may synergistically interact with those factors to increase their effects (e.g., Wan et al 2018, 2019). One such species is the Mexican Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis lucida ), one of three recognized subspecies of Spotted Owls, along with California ( S. o. occidentalis ) and Northern Spotted Owls ( S. o. caurina ; AOU 1957).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Those threats could be exacerbated by indirect effects of climate change. In the short term, the strongest such indirect effect is likely the potential for increases in the extent and severity of fires in a warmer and drier climate (USDI FWS 2012, Wan et al 2018, 2019), but, in the longer term, indirect effects could include climate‐mediated changes in forest structure and composition.…”

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confidence: 99%

Annual climate in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico: implications for responding to climate change

et al. 2020

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Global climate change presents a growing conservation threat, but our understanding of the effects of climate change remains limited for most species. We evaluated the annual climate cycle for threatened Mexican Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis lucida) in high‐elevation mixed‐conifer forests in the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico from 2005 to 2010. We used data from a network of weather stations in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat to describe annual temperature cycles, and precipitation data from a National Weather Service weather station to describe the annual precipitation cycle. We coupled these data with equations from the literature to estimate annual cycles in resting metabolic rate and evaporative water loss, and evaluated the potential effects of a warming climate on these parameters. Annual weather was characterized by cold, dry winters, warmer and dry springs, warm and wet summers, and cool and relatively wet falls. Ambient temperature never exceeded the upper critical temperature for Mexican Spotted Owls (35.2°C), but > 90% of 663,422 hourly temperature observations were below the lower critical temperature (18.2°C). Thus, heat stress was not predicted to occur, but owls likely expended energy on thermoregulation at low temperatures. Resting energy use peaked during winter (December–February) and was lowest when owls would be feeding young (May–August). In contrast, evaporative water loss peaked from June to August, when precipitation also peaked. Mexican Spotted Owls generally appeared well‐adapted to the current climate cycle in our montane study area, but late winter (February–March) may be a critical period in terms of energy requirements, and late spring (April–May) may be critical in terms of water relationships. Predicted changes in temperature through 2099 would result in reductions in predicted energy use by Mexican Spotted Owls, but increases in predicted water use. Water relationships may become increasingly important for Mexican Spotted Owls in the face of climate change, especially in warmer and drier areas. In forested areas, retaining patches of older forest with high canopy cover in cool, mesic sites may provide continued benefits to Mexican Spotted Owls under climate change.

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Recent and Projected Future Wildfire Trends Across the Ranges of Three Spotted Owl Subspecies Under Climate Change

Cited by 29 publications

References 77 publications

Metrics and Models for Quantifying Ecological Resilience at Landscape Scales

Metrics and Models for Quantifying Ecological Resilience at Landscape Scales

Review of the effects of barred owls on spotted owls

Annual climate in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico: implications for responding to climate change

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