Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004–2025

Roshandel, Gholamreza; Ferlay, Jacques; Semnani, Shahryar; Fazel, Abdolreza; Naeimi-Tabiei, Mohammad; Ashaari, Mohammad; Amiriani, Taghi; Honarvar, Mohammad Reza; Sedaghat, Seyed Mehdi; Hasanpour-Heidari, Susan; Salamat, Fatemeh; Mansoury, Mohsen; Ghasemi-Kebria, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Honeyehsadat; Jafari-Delouei, Nastaran; Shokoohifar, Nesa; Vignat, Jérôme; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Bray, Freddie

doi:10.1016/j.canep.2020.101728

Cited by 21 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…From January 2004 to December 2020, after a mean follow‐up time of 12.3 years, 49 528 subjects (99.0%) have been successfully monitored. Cases of cancer were identified during the active follow‐up, and by matching cohort members to the Golestan Population‐based Cancer Registry database 10 . For those subjects who were reported dead, a verbal autopsy was performed, to identify specific causes of death 19 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meat consumption and risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

Collatuzzo

Etemadi

Sotoudeh

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Cancer

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Red meat and processed meat are associated with some gastrointestinal cancers. Our study aims to investigate the association of different meat types with esophageal and gastric cancer (EC, GC) in a high‐risk population. The Golestan Cohort Study (GCS) is a population‐based cohort of 50 045 individuals aged 40 to 75 from northeast Iran. Detailed data on different exposures were collected using validated questionnaires. We considered quintiles of meat consumption, using grams and density (g/1000 kcal/day). We calculated intake of red, processed, organ and white meat, as well as total red meat, including the first three. We used proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between meat types and cancer. During 12 years of follow‐up, out of 49 585 participants (57.4% women), 369 developed EC (48.2% women) and 368 developed GC (27.5% women), including 309 esophageal squamous cell, 20 esophageal adenocarcinomas, 216 cardia and 95 non‐cardia GC. No association was found for EC except for red meat among females (HR for one quintile increase 1.13, 95% CI = 1.00‐1.27). The risk of GC increased for intake of total red meat (HR 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00‐1.17) and red meat separately (HR 1.09, 95% CI = 1.00‐1.18). The HR for red meat and non‐cardia GC was 1.23 (95% CI = 1.02‐1.48). No associations were observed for other types of meat. In conclusion, in this high‐risk population red meat intake is associated with GC, but not EC, suggesting a substantial role of this modifiable factor in determining the burden of GC.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meat consumption and risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

Collatuzzo

Etemadi

Sotoudeh

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Cancer

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“…The most valid data on cancer incidence are produced by population-based cancer registries; the results of a recent study based on data from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR) in the Golestan province of Iran 8 predicted a 61.3% increase in number of new cancer cases (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers [NMSCs]) between 2016 and 2025, of which 37.8% of the changes were due population growth and aging and the remaining 23.5% were due to changes in risk. 9 The Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) collects population-based cancer data at the national level covering all 31 provinces of Iran (100% coverage). 6 Predicting the future burden of cancer has a pivotal role in cancer control planning and is key for situation analyses and planning cancer control policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short‐term predictions of the future burden

Roshandel

Ferlay

Ghanbari-Motlagh

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Cancer

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Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population‐based incidence from the pathology‐based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population‐based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time‐linear age‐period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

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“…breast and colorectal cancers), while the trends of fatal cancers (e.g. esophageal and stomach cancers) were decreasing (Roshandel et al, 2020). Therefore, high incidence rates and the increasing trends of non-fatal cancers may partly explain high proportion of competing CoD in Golestan population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Analysis of Competing Risks of Causes of Death in Cancer Patients from Golestan, Iran over Twelve Years (2004-2016)

Zare

Hasanpour-Heidari

Semnani

et al. 2021

Asian Pac J Cancer Prev

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Background: Cancer-related causes of death (cancer CoD) are the main etiologies of death in cancer patients. Recent increase in survival rates of cancer patients resulted in higher risk of dying from causes other than cancer, called competing causes of death (competing CoD). We aim to characterize competing CoD among cancer patients in Golestan province, Northern Iran. Methods: Data on cancer incidence was obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) dataset. Data on causes of death was obtained from the Golestan death registry (GDR) dataset. Using a linkage method between the GPCR and GDR dataset, we prepared the study dataset including data on vital status and causes of death in our cancer patients. The proportions of cancer CoD and competing CoD were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was considered to assess the relationship between competing CoD and other variables. Results: Overall, 4,184 cancer patients died in the study population, including 2,488 men (59.9%). Cause of death in 3,455 cases was cancer and 729 cases (17.4%) died due to competing CoD. Ischemic heart disease (40.7%) was the most common competing CoD in our population. Higher survival rate was the strongest variable related to the competing CoD (adjusted OR=1.91; 95%CI: 1.61-2.26). Residence area, age group and year of death were other indicators of competing CoD in our population. Conclusion: Our results suggest high rates of competing CoD in our cancer patients. Competing CoD should be mentioned in cancer control planning both in clinical practice as well as in public health policy making.

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Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004–2025

Cited by 21 publications

References 33 publications

Meat consumption and risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

Meat consumption and risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short‐term predictions of the future burden

Analysis of Competing Risks of Causes of Death in Cancer Patients from Golestan, Iran over Twelve Years (2004-2016)

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