Recent changes in the circulation parameters and their association with Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Bansod, S. D.; Singh, H. N.; Patil, S. D.; Singh, Namrata

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2012.01.015

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…850 hPa (1953( -1982( ) 850 hPa (1983( -2012 100 hPa Thus, both, core wind speed and its horizontal extent have reduced significantly at 100 hPa level which is in accordance with the earlier studies. The reduction in extent and strength of TEJ stream is mainly because of the weaker lower westerlies which causes decreased moisture advection, and thus affects the monsoonal rainfall.…”

Section: °Nsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…West phase years 1953, 1955, 1957, 1961, 1966, 1969, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2006, 2008East phase years 1954, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2012 methods, EMD is empirical, intuitive, direct and adaptive (Wu and Huang, 2009). The main idea of EMD is to decompose the data locally into different oscillatory components called IMF.…”

Section: Qbo Phases Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Rai

Dimri

2017

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Section: °Nsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Qbo Phases Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Rai

Dimri

2017

Atmospheric Science Letters

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“…Increase in prolonged dry spells, decrease in light precipitation, and rainy days may suggest weakening of the Indian summer monsoon circulation over India. This hypothesis of a weakening of monsoon circulation is supported by the reductions in low‐level wind fields [ Dash et al ., ] and easterly jet [ Sreekala et al ., ; Bansod et al ., ] in warming environment.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in precipitation pattern and risk of drought over India in the context of global warming

Mishra

Liu

2014

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.

108

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Precipitation pattern has changed over many regions in recent decades. There are evidences of increased heavy precipitation and decreased light precipitation in widespread parts of the globe due to global warming. Many studies over Indian region focus on heavy precipitation and risk of floods. But few works discuss the changes in light precipitation and risk of droughts. In this study, changes in total dry days, prolonged dry spells, light precipitation, and risk of drought as indicated by Modified Palmer Index (MPI) over India during six decades are examined quantitatively in the context of global warming. It is found that there are increases of 49% ± 21% and 33% ± 17% in prolonged dry spells and total dry days, respectively, over India for each degree Kelvin (K) increase in global mean temperature. There is an increase of 51% ± 24% K À1 in drought index MPI (<= À 2.0). There is also a reduction of 31 ± 14% K À1 in light precipitation days over India. These changes are more severe over northeastern and western part of India. Increases in prolonged dry spells, total dry days, and decreases in light precipitation relate well with the increases in drought index MPI (<= À 2.0). These results suggest that there is an increased risk of drought due to increased prolonged dry spells, total dry days, and decreased light precipitation days over India as a result of global warming.

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“…The decline of SM rainfall in India has been attributed to several circulation parameters. Among them, the most important ones are reduced cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea (Bhaskar Rao et al 2001) weakening of the meridional cross-equatorial winds, weakening of low level Somali Jet (Bollasina et al 2011) and weakening of the upper level tropical easterly jet (Bansod et al 2012). Global warming in recent decades is associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

Wickramagamage

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

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Recent changes in the circulation parameters and their association with Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Cited by 9 publications

References 41 publications

Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Changes in precipitation pattern and risk of drought over India in the context of global warming

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

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