Recent Changes of Pacific Decadal Variability Shaped by Greenhouse Forcing and Internal Variability

Sun, Weiyi; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Dai, Yufan

doi:10.1029/2021jd035812

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 58 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Previous research in the modern meteorological community indicates the most possible driving factor affecting the EASM variability on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales is the internal sea surface temperature (SST) modes (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) through air‐sea interactions (An et al., 2015; Shekhar et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2014). The multi‐decadal variances of the PDO and the AMO was perhaps significantly intensified by the volcanic forcing during the Little Ice Age (Mann et al., 2021; Sun, Liu, et al., 2022), while the periodicity of the PDO was possibly shortened and its variance is weakened by the GHG forcing in the CMIP5/CMIP6 simulations (Sun, Wang, et al., 2022). We calculated the relationships between the reconstructed EASM index and six reconstructed PDO indices (Biondi et al., 2001; D'Arrigo & Wilson, 2006; Felis et al., 2010; Linsley et al., 2008; MacDonald & Case, 2005; Shen et al., 2006) and two instrumental PDO indices from NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V5 (Huang et al., 2017) and Mantua et al.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Possible Driving Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal to Multidecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Past Half Millennium

Shi

Goosse

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) plays a crucial role for ecosystems and societies in East Asia past, present, and future. However, substantial uncertainties remain regarding EASM variability on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales because of the short length of instrumental data in East Asia. This study extended the EASM circulation index in the modern meteorological studies to the paleoclimate over the past half‐millennium (1470–1998 CE) to reconcile the understanding of the EASM variability in paleoclimate and modern meteorological studies. The EASM index is reconstructed based on the common signal from the three main types of the proxy records (the tree rings, speleothems, and historical documentary data) related to EASM. The reconstructed EASM index captures the simultaneous changes of the “Meiyu precipitation” and the southwesterly anomalies in South China on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales, which is a dynamic pattern visible and well‐documented in the modern meteorology. Analysis of the reconstructed EASM index suggests that the interdecadal to multidecadal EASM variability is closely associated with the Pacific‐Japan teleconnection pattern, which acts as a bridge between the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. It also indicates that the EASM variability over the recent 30 years (1992–2021 CE) falls within the range of natural variability over the past half‐millennium.

show abstract

Section: Discussion Of the Possible Driving Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal to Multidecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Past Half Millennium

Shi

Goosse

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On the basis of observational data, our composite analysis also showed a negative PDO-like pattern between the 11year Smax and Smin phases (Supplementary Figure S5); this is similar to the TSI modeling result from the CESM-LME (Figure 7B). The negative PDO may induce a rise in SLP over the mid-latitude central and western North Pacific, causing a large-scale anomalous anticyclone over the extratropical North Pacific (Figure 7A) (Sun et al, 2022c). Asian continental warming induces a low SLP anomaly.…”

Section: Physical Mechanism Underlying the Precipitation Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau modulated by the 11-year solar cycle over the past millennium

Sun²,

Liu³

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introduction: Knowledge of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau, often referred to as the “Asian water tower”, is crucial for water resource management, infrastructure planning, and disaster mitigation. However, the decadal variability of Tibetan Plateau precipitation in response to the 11-year solar cycle remains unknown.Methods: Here, we used observational data obtained between 1901 and 2013, together with proxy-based reconstructions of the past five centuries, and discovered a notable summer wet condition over the central‒southern Tibetan Plateau, accompanied by a dry condition over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle. Using an ensemble mean of four solar-only sensitivity experiments from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM‒LME), we further demonstrated that the 11-year solar cycle can induce this anomalous pattern of a wet central‒southern and dry southeastern Tibetan Plateau.Results and discussion: The modeling results indicated that, under a solar maximum, a substantial surface warming occurs over the Asian continent, especially the Tibetan Plateau region; this causes an anomalous Tibetan Plateau–Indian Ocean thermal contrast, which enhances the Indian summer monsoon. The additional Tibetan Plateau heating also enhances and causes a northward shift of the South Asian High, which further intensifies the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced Indian summer monsoon transports water vapor to the northern Indian continent, which rises upon reaching the central‒southern Tibetan Plateau, substantially increasing precipitation. Meanwhile, a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like sea surface temperature pattern occurs under a solar maximum, leading to a large-scale anticyclonic anomaly over the Yangtze River basin, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and southern Japan, substantially decreasing precipitation in these regions.

show abstract

“…Some studies pointed out the important role of multidecadal Pacific SST anomalies and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in inducing the megadroughts over the Indian monsoon and Southwest North America and influencing the North China aridity (Meehl & Hu, 2006; Qian & Zhou, 2014). The Pacific Decadal Variability can change the decadal variation of SST in the North and South Pacific, which may also influence the global precipitation (W. Sun, Wang, et al., 2022). Considering the influence of global SST, B. Wang et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Secular Changes of the Decadal Relationship Between the Northern Hemisphere Land Monsoon Rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature Over the Past Millennium in Climate Model Simulations

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding the decadal variability of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall (NHLMR) is crucial to social‐economic development. However, due to the temporal limitation of instrumental data, the decadal relationship between NHLMR and sea surface temperature (SST) remains uncertain. The extended El Niño–Southern Oscillation (XEN) SST index and the North Atlantic–south Indian Ocean dipole (NAID) SST index can be the predictors to help us understand the decadal relationship between NHLMR and SST. In this study, using the Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM‐LME) simulations, we find a significant and stable decadal correlation between the NHLMR and XEN in the all‐forcing (AF) (with natural and anthropogenic forcings, AF), control (internal variability only), and other external forcings run over the past millennium, which means that this simulated NHLMR‐XEN relationship is caused by internal variability. The AF experiments show that the decadal relationship between NHLMR and NAID is practically non‐existent until an abrupt and significant increase in volcanic eruptions at about 1700, which is also indicated by the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) simulations. Using the volcanic forcing sensitivity experiments, we find that the successive strong volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) significantly strengthen the synchronous changes of NHLMR and NAID after 1700, with a periodicity of 20–40‐year for NHLMR and NAID. Specifically, successive NH eruptions weaken the north‐south hemispheric thermal contrast, contributing to the weakened NAID index. The cross‐equator flow is thus weakened, decreasing the NHLMR, which cause a resonant behavior of NHLMR and NAID.

show abstract

Recent Changes of Pacific Decadal Variability Shaped by Greenhouse Forcing and Internal Variability

Cited by 7 publications

References 58 publications

Interdecadal to Multidecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Past Half Millennium

Interdecadal to Multidecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Past Half Millennium

Decadal variability of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau modulated by the 11-year solar cycle over the past millennium

Secular Changes of the Decadal Relationship Between the Northern Hemisphere Land Monsoon Rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature Over the Past Millennium in Climate Model Simulations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About