Recent Climate Change in the Lake Kyoga Basin, Uganda: An Analysis Using Short-Term and Long-Term Data with Standardized Precipitation and Anomaly Indexes

Abstract

Climate change (CC) is now a global challenge due to uncertainties on the drivers and the multifaceted nature of its impacts. It impacts many sectors such as agriculture, water supply, and global economies through temperature and precipitation, affecting many livelihoods. Although there are global, regional, and national studies on CC, their application to determine local CC occurence mitigation and adaptation measures is not ideal. Therefore, this study aimed to determine climate change trends in Lake Kyoga Basin using standardized precipitation and anomaly indexes. Short-term (39 years, 1981–2020) and long-term (59 years, 1961–2020) monthly data from eight strategic meteorological stations were acquired from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority and supplemented with satellite and model reanalysis climate datasets. Change in precipitation was determined by SPI-6, while SAI determined change in temperature. The Mann–Kendall test was used to determine the trend significance. Whereas two (Serere and Lira) long-term data stations showed significant changes in precipitation, all the short-term data stations showed a significant increasing trend. Decadal relative rainfall anomaly increased from 85.6–105 in 1981–1990 to 92.0–120.9 in 2011–2020, while mean temperature anomaly increased from 0.2–0.6 °C to 1.0–1.6 °C in the same period. The frequency of severe wet weather events was more than for dry weather events in many stations, indicating an increase in precipitation. Maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures increased, with resultant warmer nights. The findings showed that the Lake Kyoga basin is experiencing climate change, with both temperature and rainfall increasing spatially and temporarily. Climate change affects agriculture, which is the main economic activity, and causes the destruction of infrastructure from floods, landslides, and mudslides. The results of this study are helpful in pointing out climate change-affected areas, and hence for designing mitigation and adaption strategies for local communities by policy and decision-makers from relevant stakeholders.

Application of DPSIR Model to Identify the Drivers and Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Climate Change on Land, Water and Livelihoods in the L. Kyoga Basin: Implications for Sustainable Management

“…Climate change was also identi ed as one of the signi cant drivers of LULC changes in the study area. This was in agreement with the ndings of CC in the study area, reported in the related study (Obubu et al, 2021). Deforestation and wetland degradation, aggravated by high population, lead to CC; meanwhile, CC leads to forest and wetland loss, a vicious cycle that is observed globally (Bremner et al, 2010Nkonya et al, 2011Biraso et al, 2014).…”

“…4.4 Impacts of LULC change and CC on the environment, water, and livelihoods 4.4.1 (2010) andObubu et al, (2021). At the national level, forest coverage has reduced from 24% in the 1990s to 12.4% in 2020 (MWE 2020).…”

“…Data source: FGDs in the study areaThere was an increase in temperature including warm nights, and the presence of mosquitoes due to CC, thus malaria in areas that used to be cool, e.g Kapchorwa, as reported in a related study(Obubu et al 2021). There were increased con icts within communities and between communities and law enforcement agencies like National Forest Authority (NFA), National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), over natural resources like wetlands, fertile land, and forests; for example, Limoto wetland in the border between Pallisa and Kibuku districts.…”

Determination of the Connectedness of Land Use, Land Cover Change to Water Quality Status of a Shallow Lake: A Case of Lake Kyoga Basin, Uganda

“…Application of agro-chemicals, like fertilizers, herbicides, and plant growth boosters, which contain phosphorus, nitrogen, and potassium, are also major sources of the nutrients observed. Heavy rains in the area caused by climate change as reported in the related study [106], exacerbates LULC impacts into the lake as floods help to deliver sediments and nutrients into Lake Kyoga. This is done through a network of rivers and streams including rivers, Awoja, Mpologoma, and Manafwa, with effects on water quality as has been shown elsewhere [43,80,[107][108][109][110][111][112][113][114].…”

“…Studies from other countries [14,59,[124][125][126][127] agree with these findings. Water bodies showed a slightly decreasing trend over the study area; and this could be associated with increased evapotranspiration due to high temperatures and droughts caused by climate change [106]. This decrease had an impact on all the water quality parameters in L. Kyoga as seen by solid positive and negative correlations.…”