Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA

Burns, Douglas A.; Klaus, Julian; McHale, Michael R.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.12.019

Cited by 151 publications

(144 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The MannKendall test is a nonparametric test, which means it does not assume any prior knowledge of the distribution of the data, and is, therefore, more robust than the equivalent parametric tests. This method has been frequently used for analyzing climatic variables (Chen and Xu 2005;Pasquini et al 2006;Burn and Hesch 2007;Burns et al 2007;Li et al 2007;Jiang et al 2007). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent climate trends on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

et al. 2009

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Abstract:In arid regions, mountains fulfill important ecological and economic functions for the surrounding lowlands. In the scenario of global warming, mountain ecosystems change rapidly, especially in the arid region of northwestern China. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in temperature and precipitation in the historical records of climate on the northern slopes of the eastern Tianshan Mountains. A Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend and Sen's tests are employed to analyze the interannual changes and innerannual variability in temperature and precipitation in the regions of low to high altitude. The present study finds that the largest increases in annual temperature are observed at stations in the low altitude regions. The significant increasing trends in temperature tend to occur mainly in late winter and early spring at stations from middle to high altitude, but in summer and autumn at stations of low altitudes. The increasing trends in annual precipitation are found from the middle to high altitude areas, but decreasing trends are found in the low altitude areas. The significant increasing trends in precipitation occur mostly in winter and earlier spring at stations from the middle to high altitudes, while the increasing and decreasing trend coexists at stations of low altitude with most of the significant trend changes occurring in March, June and August.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent climate trends on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

et al. 2009

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“…The variance of Mann-Kendall statistic S also incorporates a correction for ties when x i = x j (Salas, 1993). Burn and Elnur (2002), Burns et al (2007), Burn (2008), and Zhang and Lu (2009), among others, have estimated the slope of an existing trend in hydrometeorological data using the Sen's slope method. The method involves computing slopes for all the pairs of ordinal time points and then using the median of these slopes as an estimate of the overall slope.…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin

Sharif

Archer

Fowler

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. River flow is a reflection of the input of moisture and its transformation in storage and transmission over the catchment. In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), since highaltitude climate measurement and observations of glacier mass balance are weak or absent, analysis of trends in magnitude and timing in river flow provides a window on trends and fluctuations in climate and glacier outflow. Trend analysis is carried out using a Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test on records extending from 1960 to 1998. High-level glacial catchments show a falling trend in runoff magnitude and a declining proportion of glacial contribution to the main stem of the Indus. Elsewhere annual flow has predominantly increased with several stations exhibiting statistically significant positive trends. Analysis of timing using spring onset date (SOT) and centre of volume date (CoV) indicated no clear trends -in direct contrast to what has been observed in western North America. There is, however, a consistent relationship between CoV and annual runoff volume. A consistently positive correlation was also found between SOT and CoV for all the stations, implying that initial snowpack conditions before the onset of runoff influence timing throughout the season. The results of the analysis presented here indicate that the magnitude and timing of streamflow hydrograph is influenced both by the initial snowpack and by seasonally varied trends in temperature. The study contributes to the understanding of the links between climate trends and variability and river runoff and glacier mass balance and runoff. The Upper Indus Basin is predominantly influenced by winter precipitation; similar trend analysis applied to summermonsoon-dominated catchments of the central Himalaya is recommended.

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“…An increase in precipitation intensity, which is widespread across the United States (Groisman et al 2005), has led to increases in flux of organic matter into Catskill reservoirs necessitating addition of aluminum sulfate to reservoirs to encourage sedimentation and the possible raising of levels from which water is removed from reservoirs before being passed down the supply system (New York Times, 20 July 2006, and see http://www.amwa.net/cs/climatechange/ newyorkcity). Also, rising temperatures (Trombulak and Wolfson 2004) are causing increasing evaporative demand, decreases in winter snowpacks, and earlier snowmelt (Burns et al 2007;Hayhoe et al 2007; see also Huntington et al 2004 for the case of New England), posing problems for the water supply system. However, the northeastern United States is fortunate in that, since widespread record keeping began, it has not experienced the succession of multiyear devastating droughts that have afflicted the southwestern United States and Great Plains, largely because of the weaker influence of tropical sea surface temperature variations on precipitation in the Northeast than in those more western regions (e.g., Seager et al 2005b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 1960s Drought and the Subsequent Shift to a Wetter Climate in the Catskill Mountains Region of the New York City Watershed*

et al. 2012

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The precipitation history over the last century in the Catskill Mountains region that supplies water to New York City is studied. A severe drought occurred in the early to mid-1960s followed by a wet period that continues. Interannual variability of precipitation in the region is related to patterns of atmospheric circulation variability in the midlatitude east Pacific-North America-west Atlantic sector with no link to the tropics. Associated SST variations in the Atlantic are consistent with being forced by the anomalous atmospheric flow rather than being causal. In winter and spring the 1960s drought was associated with a low pressure anomaly over the midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean and northerly subsiding flow over the greater Catskills region that would likely suppress precipitation. The cold SSTs offshore during the drought are consistent with atmospheric forcing of the ocean. The subsequent wet period was associated with high pressure anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean and ascending southerly flow over eastern North America favoring increased precipitation and a strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere storm track. Neither the drought nor the subsequent pluvial are simulated in sea surface temperature-forced atmosphere GCMs. The long-term wetting is also not simulated as a response to changes in radiative forcing by coupled models. It is concluded that past precipitation variability in the region, including the drought and pluvial, were most likely caused by internal atmospheric variability. Such events are unpredictable and a drought like the 1960s one could return while the long-term wetting trend need not continue-conclusions that have implications for management of New York City's water resources.

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Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA

Cited by 151 publications

References 42 publications

Recent climate trends on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Recent climate trends on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin

The 1960s Drought and the Subsequent Shift to a Wetter Climate in the Catskill Mountains Region of the New York City Watershed*

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