Recent Climatology (1991–2020) and Trends in Local Warm and Cold Season Extreme Temperature Days and Nights in Arabia

Abstract

The Arabian Peninsula (Arabia) is among the places to have experienced the greatest amount of warming during recent decades, and this trend is projected to continue. Specifics related to the characteristics (frequency, duration, and intensity) of extreme temperature events (ETEs) over Arabia as a whole are either largely outdated or limited only to specific areas. The seasonal ETE definitions commonly used in local studies are neither climatological- nor phenomenon-based. Using a novel and straightforward framework, the seasons of four extreme temperature types (extreme warm days/nights (EWDs/EWNs) and extreme cold days/nights (ECDs/ECNs)) were identified on the simultaneous basis of event occurrence and impact times. Assessments of ETE frequency, duration, and intensity and their recent changes were then provided based on the most recent climate data (1991–2020). Results showed that the use of traditional seasonal definitions (e.g., meteorological seasons) tends to assume a spatiotemporal homogeneity in the seasonality of ETEs and their potential risk levels throughout the year. The developed framework distinguished months with events that have larger potential impacts together with their local seasons. ETE seasons were found to vary at the regional and local scales and are better defined at both the local and phenomenon levels. Early extreme warm events were hotter, and those at locations with longer local warm seasons demonstrated higher intensities. ECDs tended to be more frequent at coastal locations, whereas ECNs were more frequent over southwestern Arabia. Early and late extreme cold events were much colder than those occurring mid-season. Trend analyses revealed generally increasing regional trends in the frequency of extreme warm events, whereas extreme cold events have declined. The duration (i.e., consecutive occurrences) and intensity of EWNs have been increasing at more locations, suggesting that urgent attention is needed within such an arid and hot climate type in which nighttime stress relief is already very limited.

Evaluating the h‐index as a climate metric for the Arabian Peninsula

“…However, days that comprise the h‐index can occur during the early and/or late warm season months, which indicates that the h‐index incorporates some of the day‐to‐day thermal variability. Warm events over the Arabian Peninsula tend to occur early (May) and end early (end of July) along the south and east coasts and in highland areas (Alghamdi, 2022). The h‐index analysis was able to detect this pattern, indicating that the h‐index can reflect both spatial and temporal differences (Figure 3).…”

“…The h-index analysis was able to detect this pattern, indicating that the h-index can reflect both spatial and temporal differences (Figure 3). For example, (Alghamdi, 2022) showed that hot day and night events at Salalah station (ID 30), Oman, on the Arabian Sea coast do not occur in Jul-Sep due to monsoon season. The h-index analysis revealed a similar pattern as hottest days/nights were less frequent or do not occur during monsoon months (Figure 3).…”

A Weighted Overlay Analysis for Assessing Urban Flood Risks in Arid Lands: A Case Study of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

“…Its central location establishes it as a crucial connectivity area of strategic importance within the country. The city is characterized by an arid climate typical of desert environments, experiencing extreme temperatures that range from hot summers to cold winters [31]. Precipitation is scarce, with an annual average rainfall of only 97 mm, rendering flood events in the region unpredictable due to the erratic nature of rainfall.…”